Assessment of Planning and Retail Issues - Renfrewshire Council

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PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 22 ASSESSMENT OF PLANNING AND RETAIL ISSUES BRAEHEAD RETAIL PARK MAY 2010 metre extension to Phoenix Retail Park, and a 4,995 square metre extension to Abbotsinch Retail Park. We also included the additional floorspace provided by Marks and Spencer at Braehead. Against these additions to retail floorspace had to be balanced the reduction in floorspace resulting from closure of the Arnott’s department store and Littlewoods in Paisley town centre. The amount of gross comparison floorspace estimated in Paisley town centre after allowing for floorspace reductions and the redevelopment of Arnott’s was 46,775 square metres. 3.27 Using these figures we produced Tables 13 and 14. Table 13 allowed for reductions in floorspace in Paisley town centre, as revealed from the council’s surveys of 2003 and 2008, while Table 14 showed the likely effect of the introduction of new approved floorspace in the Paisley area, by making appropriate adjustments to the market shares achieved by each shopping destination to allow for these floorspace changes. Unfortunately the more recent floorspace survey figures were not directly comparable with the ones from 2003 because of a change in the geographical extent of the area being surveyed, which results in Paisley town centre’s turnover appearing to drop more dramatically - when comparing Table 13 with Table 14 - than it would have done in reality. However Table 13 provides a reasonable estimate of the base turnover of Paisley town centre before allowing for the implementation of new developments. 3.28 A comparison of Table 13 with Table 14 shows that the implementation of commitments would be likely to result in Paisley town centre’s turnover increasing from its low point of £166 million, following floorspace closures, to around £180 million, with Abbotsinch Retail Park increasing its turnover by around £12 million and Phoenix Retail Park by £28.5 million. The combined turnover of Braehead Mall and Retail Park drawn from the main catchment area reduces by £27 million. Council surveys show a very substantial reduction in Renfrew town centre’s comparison floorspace between 2003 and 2008, and this is also reflected in Table 14 - although the scale of the reduction suggests that the two surveys are not compatible in terms of the geographical areas to which they relate, as is the case in Paisley town centre The Effect of Silverburn 3.29 The next stage in the exercise in 2008 was to build in the effect of Silverburn shopping centre at Pollok to the model of shopping patterns. Although the centre was not yet fully let, we were able to produce an estimate of its likely trading
PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 23 ASSESSMENT OF PLANNING AND RETAIL ISSUES BRAEHEAD RETAIL PARK MAY 2010 potential when fully let, on the assumption that this would be achieved by 2010 (in reality Silverburn is now largely let, with only a few vacant units). 3.30 Table 15 sets out our estimate of the altered shopping patterns after allowing for the Silverburn effect, adjusted to take account of the changed expenditure estimates compared with the previous analysis. It is estimated that the centre would have achieved a turnover of £275 million from the Braehead main catchment in 2008 if fully let, resulting in a 20% reduction in Braehead’s turnover potential, and a 5.4% impact on Paisley’s comparison trade. East Kilbride is estimated to lose around 18% of its comparison trade drawn from the Braehead catchment, and Glasgow City Centre 5.4%. Our estimates are based on the likely market penetration of Silverburn into each catchment, having regard to the nature of the facilities in those catchments and their distance from Silverburn, and also having regard to the extent to which shoppers living in the Pollok area were making trips to other shopping destinations when surveyed in 2003. Expenditure Growth to 2010 3.31 Table 16 takes the estimated changes in shopping patterns following the opening of Silverburn, and simply rolls forward those patterns from 2008 to 2010, so we can see how the various spending flows would be higher in 2010 as a result of expenditure growth, assuming no change in shopping habits or floorspace provision. Overall turnover generated from catchment spending increases from £3,985 million to £4,216 million. Effect of City Centre Commitments 3.32 As previously explained, Table 11 shows the estimated turnover of the city centre in 2008, after allowing for the implementation of commitments assumed by the Glasgow City Plan. However the latest estimates produced by Glasgow City Council (GCC Factsheet, July 2009) show an anticipated additional comparison floorspace provision of some 91,600 square metres to 2013, excluding the Buchanan Galleries extension but including the St. Enoch extension. It is unlikely that the Buchanan Galleries development will have opened and reached normal trading conditions by 2012 so has not been built into our model, but we have assumed that all the other permissions will have been implemented by then. 3.33 Following the same process as for Silverburn, in Table 17 we have made further adjustments to the market shares of centres within each area to allow for the likely
Page 1 and 2: Proposed Extensions at Braehead Ret
Page 3 and 4: 1 INTRODUCTION The Proposals 1.1 Br
Page 5 and 6: PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 3 ASSESSMENT
Page 13 and 14: PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 11 ASSESSMEN
Page 23: PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 21 ASSESSMEN
Page 35 and 36: Table 1 Population Estimates - Brae
Page 37 and 38: Table 3 Comparison Expenditure Esti
Page 39 and 40: Table 5 Shopping Patterns in Main C
Page 45 and 46: Table 11 Changes to Glasgow City Ce
Page 47 and 48: Table 13 Estimated Total Turnover a
Page 53 and 54: Table 19 Potential Turnover - B&Q S
Page 57: Table 23 Estimated Turnover of Addi

Assessment of Planning and Retail Issues - Renfrewshire Council

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