Assessment of Planning and Retail Issues - Renfrewshire Council

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PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 26 ASSESSMENT OF PLANNING AND RETAIL ISSUES BRAEHEAD RETAIL PARK MAY 2010 of the B&Q reoccupied scenario is £12.5 million, and it is this turnover which can be regarded as potentially being diverted from other retail destinations. Estimated Trade Diversions Due to Sainsbury Relocation 3.41 We then estimated how the additional £12.5 million trade at Braehead would be diverted from other shopping destinations, and this analysis is set out in Table 20. For each catchment we estimated how the comparison trade might be redistributed, having regard to the nature of the shopping facilities which would be likely to be in competition with the improved offer at Braehead, and the market share and trade draw patterns revealed in Tables 17 and 18. 3.42 We assumed that 70% of the new trade at Braehead would be drawn from the Paisley / Renfrew catchment (Table 20, column 8) - which is considerably higher than the 52% which Braehead drew from the Paisley catchment when the household survey was undertaken (Table 10, column 9), reflecting the more localised catchment of the Sainsbury’s element of the additional turnover, and also reflecting the prediction in Table 18 that Braehead’s trade draw will tend to become more localised as the increased competition from other centres takes effect. We estimated that the remaining trade would be drawn from throughout the existing Braehead catchment, broadly reflecting the 2003 patterns, except for the draw from the Pollok area where the trade draw would be lower than in 2003 because of the Silverburn effect. Some of the trade within the new comparison floorspace would be diverted from other existing stores within the Braehead centre, reflecting competition between existing and new traders. 3.43 The total effect of the estimated trade diversions can be seen in the right-hand columns of Table 20, where the percentage impacts and changes in turnover per square metre are shown. All the percentage reductions are extremely low (less than 1%), which is not surprising given that the total trade diversion is only £12.5 million. None of these trade diversions would cause any longer-term trading difficulty in the centres concerned. 3.44 The turnover at Braehead is predicted to increase by 3% as a result of the Sainsbury’s relocation, although still £67 million below the level that it could have expected to achieve from the main catchment area in 2008 in the absence of the various competing new developments coming on stream. Braehead’s market share is projected to fall to 6.9% of the available spending in its catchment, compared with its 9% market share in 2003.
PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 27 ASSESSMENT OF PLANNING AND RETAIL ISSUES BRAEHEAD RETAIL PARK MAY 2010 Effect of the Proposed Extensions to the Retail Park 3.45 Having now analysed all the likely changes to the turnover, market share and trade draw of Braehead and other centres as a result of the implementation of commitments, relocation of Sainsbury’s, and increases in retail expenditure to 2010, we can now consider the likely effect of the proposed extensions to the retail park, assuming also that the new mezzanine floor is installed in the existing Curry’s unit. 3.46 As previously explained, we are assuming that the proposed extensions will have been built and occupied, and a normal level of trade established, by the year 2012. Consequently we need to roll forward the patterns of retail spending from 2010 to 2012 before proceeding further. Table 21 shows the estimated patterns of spending in 2010 following the implementation of all commitments plus the Sainsbury’s relocation, and Table 22 shows the same spending patterns applied to 2012 levels of expenditure. The total turnover derived from the catchment, of £4,506 million, is the same total as shown in the expenditure calculations in Table 3. Estimated Turnover of the New Floorspace 3.47 Table 23 shows our estimate of the potential turnover of the new retail floorspace being proposed. We have assumed one of the units being occupied by a furniture retailer and the other by a higher-value operator such as an electrical goods retailer. We have then applied the 2009 Retail Rankings estimate of Curry’s turnover to the proposed mezzanine floor area. The total potential additional turnover is £26.2 million. 3.48 Following the same methodology as in Table 20 for the Sainsbury’s relocation, we have then estimated the likely source of the £26.2 million in terms of trade draw from each part of the catchment, and the centres from which the trade is likely to be diverted. Based on the household survey evidence and our analysis of changes since then, showing the retail park drawing around 55% of its main catchment trade from the Paisley / Renfrew area, 20% from the Glasgow South area, 11% from North West Glasgow, and smaller amounts from the remaining sub-areas, we have assumed that the new floorspace will have similar trade draw characteristics. Accordingly Table 24 examines the likely trade diversions from each shopping destination, based on similar trade draws to those currently achieved at the retail park.
Page 1 and 2: Proposed Extensions at Braehead Ret
Page 3 and 4: 1 INTRODUCTION The Proposals 1.1 Br
Page 5 and 6: PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 3 ASSESSMENT
Page 13 and 14: PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 11 ASSESSMEN
Page 27: PROPOSED EXTENSIONS AT 25 ASSESSMEN
Page 35 and 36: Table 1 Population Estimates - Brae
Page 37 and 38: Table 3 Comparison Expenditure Esti
Page 39 and 40: Table 5 Shopping Patterns in Main C
Page 45 and 46: Table 11 Changes to Glasgow City Ce
Page 47 and 48: Table 13 Estimated Total Turnover a
Page 53 and 54: Table 19 Potential Turnover - B&Q S
Page 57: Table 23 Estimated Turnover of Addi

Assessment of Planning and Retail Issues - Renfrewshire Council

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