Power Statistics - 2010 Edition - Full Report - Eurelectric

Fossil fuel price trends:
continuous increase up to 2030
Oil prices are expected to increase up to 2030, as forecast by
the Prometheus model developed by the National Technical
University of Athens (see Figure 4). They would rise to 72 Euros/
bbl by 2015 and to roughly 106 Euros/bbl by 2030. Gas prices will
follow a similar curve, albeit at lower price levels. Coal prices will
rise to 17 Euros/boe in 2015 and stabilise at around 29 Euros/
boe by 2030. Thus, fossil fuel prices for oil, gas and coal are all
expected to increase throughout the entire projection period.
Electricity demand grows steadily
EURELECTRIC’s Power Choices study foresees electricity demand
to grow steadily over the next decades, substituting fossil fuels
as the primary source of energy (see Figure 5). This will primarily
materialise because of a shift in some high consumption sectors,
namely transport and heating. The increased use of electronic
appliances will push electricity consumption even further. Final
curves will appear to flatten, since energy efficiency measures
(including generation efficiency), demand side measures (DSM),
smart grids as well as other new technologies applied to the
sector are expected to contribute.
Figure 4: Energy price trends up to 2030 Figure 5: Share of electricity in the overall EU energy mix
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Fossil Fuel Prices in Baseline (Constant Euro of 2008 per boe)
Oil
Gas (NCV)
Coal
71.88
44.18
17.22
88.41
62.11
25.81
105.88
76.59
29.35
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
share
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Electricity Share (%) in the Energy Mix
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Steam/Heat
renewables
0
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Source: DG ENER, Energy Trends 2030, 2010, based on Prometheus. Source: EURELECTRIC, Power Choices, June 2010. Values here are
shown as final consumption, and electricity values do not include
electricity consumption of the electricity sector.
Power Statistics – 2010 Edition 13