is Coming to Korea - Korea IT Times

Forecast | Prospects of Korea Electronics Industry in 2010
The Outlook on the Korea's
Electronics Industry
The outlook on the electronics industry
The Korean economy has been showing signs of rapid recovery
since the second quarter of 2009. Asset prices started to go
back to normal levels and private consumption has been on the
rebound, boosted by economic stimulus packages. In addition,
exports have bounced back by volume since June of 2009. Real
economic indicators have been improving and leading economic
indicators are pointing to a continuous economic recovery in the
future.
However, on the grounds that one-off factors - such as the low
base effect from the previous year, economic stimulus packages
and exchange rate effects- have played a large part in fueling the
rapid economic recovery, the Korean economy is highly likely to
grow at a slower pace in the future. In the first half of 2009, government-led
spending and investments in public works paid off,
while increased consumption of durable goods, driven by economic
stimulus packages, came into play after midyear 2009.
somewhat hampered by advanced nations' debt restructuring, the
expansion of protectionism, and so on.
International oil prices have been rising faster than expected
owing to financial factors such as a weak US dollar. As the global
economy takes a turn for the better, high oil prices are expected to
linger for some time. However, in terms of fundamentals, demand
is not as strong as it used to be, so the probability of additional
gains in international oil prices stays low.
The global economy is on the rebound
The global economy has entered a recovery phase, ending the
chapter of the global economic recession, brought on by the global
financial turmoil, but the recovery pace is expected to be moderate.
Judging from economic indicators, it is fair to say that the
real economies of leading nations have started to turn around
since the second half of 2009.
While advanced economies are likely to grow a mere one percent
in 2010, emerging markets are expected to lead the global
economic recovery. The recovery of global trade is projected to be
The Korean economy grows 4.8 percent
thanks to the low base effect
In 2010, S. Korea is expected to see its economy continue to
pick up - though, at a slower pace, with projected GDP growth of
4.8 percent in 2010 thanks to the low base effect stemming from
the first half of 2009. The low base effect is likely to widen the gap
between economic growth in the first half of 2010 and that of the
second half. Except for the low base effect, a real economic recovery
or a sensible economic recovery will be much more modest.
When the low base effect from the first half of 2009 is excluded,
the second half of 2010 is likely to see the Korean economy rise
3.3 percent.
There are fear factors such as the possibility of the global economy's
double-dip recession on the heels of exit strategies and the tapering
effects of economic stimulus packages; and the probability
of increased volatility in international oil prices and exchange
rates that would follow possible dips in the value of the dollar.
Rising inventory levels of major industries, however, are likely to
jack up economic growth for 2010.
12 KOREA IT TIMES | February 2010