is Coming to Korea - Korea IT Times

Forecast
The 21st century's living
room might not just be a
living space, but also
a total multimedia space
In the mid term, on the grounds that the global export market is
on shaky ground as there is likely to be a long way to go before
the tumbled global trade goes back to pre-recession levels, the economic
recovery, this time around, will be milder. Facility investment
is expected to post double-digit growth thanks to recoveries
in consumption and exports and the low base effect.
Automobiles, displays and semiconductors are expected to spearhead
growth in facility investments.
Export gains and trade surpluses
In 2010, the global economic recovery is projected to ramp up
exports and imports. Despite a strong won, the US-led global economic
recovery will help S. Korea's exports climb around 13 percent.
Imports are expected to soar as much as 20 percent, boosted
by recovering domestic demand, rising international raw material
prices, increased imports of intermediate goods (caused by export
booms) and the low base effect from 2009. As imports are likely
to outrun exports, S. Korea's trade surplus would hover around
US$ 24 billion, a steep fall from 2009.
Customs-cleared exports – which dropped 13.8 percent yearon-year
to US$ 363.9 billion in 2009 – are expected to rise 12.8
percent to US$ 410.5 billion in 2010. On the other hand, customs-cleared
imports that shrank 16.7 percent to US$323.6 billion
in 2009 are projected to zoom up by 19.6 percent to US$
386.9 billion in 2010. S. Korea's trade balance is expected to
dwindle to US$ 23.6 billion in 2010 from US$40.3 billion in 2009.
The IT industry drives up domestic demand in
manufacturing
The release of Windows 7, the World Cup 2010 in South
Africa, the expansion of smartphone markets, and increased demand
for LED and solar cells are likely to boost domestic demand
in the IT industry more than in any other industry.
Sales of displays, in particular, are projected to surge 41 percent
thanks to the low base effect and booming front-line industries. In
the non-IT industry, domestic demand for general machinery and
steel will gain 10 percent thanks to a rebound in construction and
facility investments. And demand for textile and textile chemicals
will slowly inch up, while that for automobiles and shipbuilding is
likely to be in the doldrums. Sales of automobiles are expected to
lose 1.4 percent due to weakened purchasing power resulting
from mounting household debts and the expiration of "tax deductions
for clunkers" program.
Production of the IT industry is projected to pick up thanks to
gains in exports and imports. The low base effect and recoveries
in exports and domestic demand will help most industries turn
around. The IT industry will be the driving force behind the production
growth in manufacturing. The production of displays is
likely to rise 11.2 percent, while that of semiconductors and information
& communications equipment is predicted to increase 6-7
percent. On the other hand, the production of home appliances is
forecast to gain a disappointing 2.1 percent as the levying of individual
consumption tax on home appliances puts a damper on
the sales of big ticket items.
Exports go up 10.8 percent
Although a strong won can put downward pressure, exports
are expected to jump 10.8 percent, remaining similar to 2008 levels,
as exports to emerging markets, led by China, continue to
grow. The IT industry – whose exports are expected to climb
15.2 percent thanks to such improvements in export conditions
as the World Cup 2010 in South Africa and the launch of
Windows 7 - is likely to lead export activities in manufacturing.
Exports of semiconductors, displays, information & communications
equipment, and home appliances are expected to advance
17.0 percent, 15.1 percent, 14.3 percent and 13.4 percent respectively.
Of the total exports, the combined share of shipbuilding,
information & communications equipment, automobiles, and
semiconductors is forecast to amount to 41 percent. Each of the
four industries has an around 10 percent share of the total exports.
Imports go up 12.4 percent
In 2010, the revenues of the top 10 major industries are projected
to gain 12.4 percent due to the low base effect from 2009
when their revenues tumbled 24 percent, but still they are expected
to fall short of 2008 levels.
The IT industry's imports will rise 14.8 percent, boosted by increased
demand for parts imports for export goods, growing reimwww.koreaittimes.com
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