(BRAVO) Study: Final Report. - Desert Research Institute

Final Report — September 2004
Table of Contents (continued)
Page
9.5 Evaluation of the Forward Mass Balance Regression (FMBR) Method
Using Perfluorocarbon Tracer Measurements................................................ 9-25
9.5.1 Retrieval of Tracer Release Locations and Rates............................... 9-25
9.5.2 Source Apportionment of Tracer Concentrations .............................. 9-27
9.5.3 Discussion of FMBR Tracer Evaluation ............................................ 9-28
9.6 Evaluation of the Tracer Mass Balance (TrMB) Method Using
REMSAD-Modeled Sulfate Concentrations .................................................. 9-28
9.7 Evaluation of the Forward Mass Balance Regression (FMBR) Method
Using REMSAD-Modeled Sulfate Concentrations........................................ 9-32
9.8 Evaluation of REMSAD Simulations of Perfluorocarbon Tracers................... 9-34
9.9 Evaluation of REMSAD Simulations of SO 2 , and Sulfate Measurements....... 9-39
9.10 Evaluation of CMAQ Simulations of Perfluorocarbon Tracers ....................... 9-45
9.11 Evaluation of CMAQ Simulations of SO 2 , Sulfate, and Other Aerosol
Components.................................................................................................... 9-51
9.11.1 Development of Base Case ................................................................ 9-51
9.11.2 Base Case Performance...................................................................... 9-53
9.11.3 Discussion of CMAQ-MADRID Performance .................................. 9-63
9.12 Synthesis Inversion – Merging Modeled Source Apportionment Results
and Receptor Data .......................................................................................... 9-64
9.13 Conclusions Concerning Performance of the Source Attribution Methods ..... 9-66
10. SOURCE ATTRIBUTIONS BY AMBIENT DATA ANALYSIS.............................. 10-1
10.1 Sulfur Attributions via TAGIT ......................................................................... 10-1
10.2 Attribution of PM 2.5 Components via Exploratory Factor Analysis................. 10-3
10.3 Attribution of Big Bend Particulate Sulfur and Soil via EOF Analysis ........... 10-7
10.4 Transport Patterns to Big Bend during Periods of High and Low Sulfur
Concentrations.............................................................................................. 10-11
10.5 Attribution of Big Bend Particulate Sulfur via Trajectory Mass Balance
(TrMB) ......................................................................................................... 10-15
10.6 Attribution of Big Bend Sulfate via Forward Mass Balance Regression
(FMBR) ........................................................................................................ 10-18
11. SOURCE ATTRIBUTIONS BY AIR QUALITY MODELING................................. 11-1
11.1 Sulfate Attribution via REMSAD..................................................................... 11-1
11.2 Sulfate Attribution via CMAQ-MADRID...................................................... 11-11
11.3 Refined Sulfate Attribution using Synthesized Modeling Approaches.......... 11-17
12. ATTRIBUTION RECONCILIATION, CONCEPTUAL MODEL, AND
LESSONS LEARNED ................................................................................................. 12-1
12.1 Introduction....................................................................................................... 12-1
12.2 Phase I: Tracer Screening and Evaluation........................................................ 12-3
12.3 Phase II: Initial Application.............................................................................. 12-5
12.4 Refined Attribution Approaches....................................................................... 12-8
viii