(BRAVO) Study: Final Report. - Desert Research Institute

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Final Report — September 2004 because they provide a more complete data set for the period than the EDAS fields (which are missing for the last month of the BRAVO period and for some time thereafter because of a fire in a NOAA computer), although the grid spacing of about 190 km is coarse compared to the EDAS spacing of 80 km. The FNL archive is described in detail at http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/fnl.pl. Eight-day (192-hour) back trajectories were started at one-hour intervals for the fourmonth period in all five years. The eight-day period was selected to allow for possible transport from distant areas, such as the eastern United States, during relatively light wind conditions to be identified, although it should be recognized that uncertainties increase as the length of the back trajectory is increased. Three starting heights were used: 10 m, 500 m, and 1,500 m above ground level (i.e., the actual forward trajectories are assumed to arrive at Big Bend at these elevations). Typical afternoon mixing heights in south Texas (Del Rio soundings) during summer are about 2,500 m, so these heights represent lower to middleupper daytime mixed layer locations. Residence time was calculated by counting the number of back trajectory endpoints (hourly locations) in each one-degree-latitude-by-one-degree-longitude area and dividing by the total number of endpoints. The gridded residence times were then contoured. Maps of residence time were generated for each year (1998 through 2002) for each starting height (10, 500, 1,500 m AGL). The differences between residence times for each year and the five-year average residence time at each height were also computed to illustrate differences of each year from the five-year mean. To illustrate the results, Figure 7-5 compares the residence times for July-October 1999 to the 1998-2002 July-October five-year average residence time for the 10 and 1,500 meters AGL starting heights. Figure 7-5 shows that the mean transport direction at both elevations is roughly from the southeast along the U.S./Mexico border, that transport distances are longer for the higher starting elevation (higher wind speeds with height), and there is more variability in wind direction at the higher elevation. Figure 7-6 shows the differences between July-October 1999 and the July-October five-year averages at each of the three heights. The general flow patterns for 1999 and the five-year average are similar, but some differences can be noted. At all three heights during 1999, there was less long-range transport from the eastern U.S. as compared to the five-year average for July-October. At 10 meters starting height, 1999 shows less flow over most of Texas (except the Panhandle and far southern Texas) than the five-year average, and more flow over the border area and far northeastern Mexico. At 1,500 meters back-trajectory starting height, 1999 had more frequent flow over southeastern Texas, northern Mexico, and Louisiana. To complete the picture, Figure 7-7 shows the differences from the five-year mean for July-October 1998, 2000, 2001, and 2002 residence times. Compared to the five-year average, in 1998, there was more frequent flow from the Ohio River Valley, 2001 had less frequent flow from the eastern U.S., and 2002 had a higher frequency of flow from the southeastern U.S.. 7-5
Final Report — September 2004 Figure 7-5. Residence times for July-October 1999 (left) and the five-year July-October average (right), for 10 and 1,500 meter back-trajectory starting heights at Big Bend. 7-6
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