(BRAVO) Study: Final Report. - Desert Research Institute

Final Report — September 2004
Table of Contents (continued)
Page
8. ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS AND MODELING METHODS .................................... 8-1
8.1 Data Analysis Methods....................................................................................... 8-1
8.1.1 Tracer Methods – TAGIT .................................................................... 8-1
8.1.2 Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis............................................. 8-3
8.1.3 Factor Analysis..................................................................................... 8-4
8.2 Meteorological Fields ......................................................................................... 8-4
8.2.1 EDAS ................................................................................................... 8-5
8.2.2 FNL ...................................................................................................... 8-5
8.2.3 MM5..................................................................................................... 8-6
8.3 Trajectory-Based Analyses................................................................................. 8-7
8.3.1 ATAD Trajectories............................................................................... 8-7
8.3.2 HYSPLIT Trajectories ......................................................................... 8-8
8.3.3 CAPITA Monte Carlo Trajectories ...................................................... 8-8
8.3.4 Ensemble Air-Mass History Analyses ................................................. 8-9
8.3.5 Trajectory Mass Balance (TrMB) ........................................................ 8-9
8.3.6 Forward Mass Balance Regression (FMBR) ..................................... 8-12
8.4 Air Quality Simulation Modeling..................................................................... 8-14
8.4.1 CAPITA Monte Carlo ........................................................................ 8-14
8.4.2 REMSAD ........................................................................................... 8-15
8.4.3 CMAQ................................................................................................ 8-16
8.4.4 Synthesized REMSAD and CMAQ ................................................... 8-18
8.5 Attribution Source Regions .............................................................................. 8-18
8.6 Visualization of Spatial Patterns....................................................................... 8-21
9. EVALUATION OF SOURCE ATTRIBUTION METHODS ....................................... 9-1
9.1 Evaluation of Simulations of Meteorological Fields .......................................... 9-1
9.1.1 Evaluation of MM5 Surface Meteorology Simulations ....................... 9-2
9.1.2 Comparison of MM5, EDAS, and FNL Wind Fields to Radar
Wind Profiler Measurements ............................................................... 9-5
9.1.3 Evaluation of REMSAD/MM5 Simulations of Precipitation and
Clouds................................................................................................... 9-9
9.2 Sensitivity of Trajectories to Wind Fields........................................................ 9-13
9.2.1 Effect of Wind Field Choice .............................................................. 9-14
9.2.2 Effect of Trajectory Model Choice .................................................... 9-15
9.2.3 Effect of Back Trajectory Start Height .............................................. 9-16
9.2.4 Effect of Using FNL Winds in October ............................................. 9-17
9.3 Evaluation of the Trajectory Mass Balance (TrMB) Method using
Perfluorocarbon Tracer Measurements .......................................................... 9-17
9.4 Evaluation of the CAPITA Monte Carlo Model Using Perfluorocarbon
Tracer Measurements ..................................................................................... 9-20
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