(BRAVO) Study: Final Report. - Desert Research Institute
(BRAVO) Study: Final Report. - Desert Research Institute
(BRAVO) Study: Final Report. - Desert Research Institute
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<strong>Final</strong> <strong>Report</strong> — September 2004<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
ug/m3<br />
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5<br />
10/4<br />
10/6 10/5<br />
10/9<br />
10/11<br />
8/22<br />
10/21<br />
10/19<br />
10/22<br />
ug/m3<br />
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5<br />
10/5<br />
8/28<br />
8/30<br />
8/21 8/29<br />
9/23<br />
9/11<br />
7/27<br />
9/24<br />
7/30<br />
8/1<br />
7/31<br />
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000<br />
0 2000 4000 6000 8000<br />
endpoints<br />
Eastern U.S<br />
CAPITAMC MM5 5-Day<br />
endpoints<br />
Western U.S.<br />
ug/m3<br />
0 1 2 3 4 5<br />
10/13<br />
9/2<br />
10/6<br />
9/1<br />
9/15<br />
10/12<br />
10/14<br />
ug/m3<br />
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2<br />
10/10<br />
10/5<br />
10/17<br />
9/21<br />
10/18<br />
9/30<br />
9/27<br />
7/11<br />
10/20<br />
9/26<br />
10/8<br />
9/25<br />
0 2000 4000 6000<br />
endpoints<br />
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000<br />
endpoints<br />
Figure 9-12. Scatter plots of REMSAD sulfate concentration attributions vs. number of endpoints for<br />
each of four large source areas using 5-day back trajectories from the CAPITA MC Model and MM5<br />
winds. The solid blue lines represent the mean ratio of REMSAD-attributed sulfate to number of<br />
endpoints for each source area and the dashed red lines represent the corresponding mean ratio of<br />
the TrMB analysis. Note that the concentration scale is different for each plot.<br />
the “correct” relationship that the TrMB model would have to re-create in order to give the<br />
same mean attributions as REMSAD. The scatter of the points about the blue line gives an<br />
idea of how much the true relationship between endpoints and concentrations deviates from<br />
the mean from day to day, and thus how far the attribution for an individual day could<br />
deviate from the mean attribution. The dashed red line indicates the mean ratio derived by<br />
the TrMB analysis. The angle between the red and blue lines shows how well the TrMB<br />
method was able to reproduce the mean REMSAD attribution of sulfate; the best that TrMB<br />
can do is match the red line to the blue line.<br />
Figure 9-12 shows that the assumption of linearity seems to be fairly good when<br />
using the Monte Carlo model, because the mean attribution is quite good (the red line is close<br />
to the blue line), though some large deviations from the mean relationship exist on individual<br />
days. For example, for the Texas source area, most points lie close to the blue line. The<br />
9-31
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