Conference Programme (PDF, 1019KB) - Trinity College Dublin

abstracts by stream and session
occupational structure, relative wages and labour mobility. Rising levels of education can reduce the local supply of lesser skill labour.
Internal and outmigration trends can affect the workforce supply at local level, especially in rural areas.
Although all these processes may have significant consequences for the demand for migrant labour - and indeed are often mentioned by
migration scholars as contextual and contributing factors to social and economic change underlying migration movement - there is a lack
of a systematic understanding of their impact and their relationships with other social, economic and political factors driving migration.
This leaves researchers and policy makers with a knowledge gap which is urgent to fill especially in relation to future population trends,
indicating that labour shortages of demographic nature are likely to play a bigger role than in the past. Eurostat's demographic
projections indicate that over the next two decades the working age population of the EU-27 will begin to shrink - an unprecedented trend
for centuries. Although this decrease will be initially slow and its impact on the labour supply may be more than offset by increasing
labour participation, it will be significant for the young cohorts entering the labour market, particularly in EU countries with the lowest
fertility, and even assuming the continuation of large inflows of international migrants. In parallel, the European population is expected to
continue to age significantly over the next decades: older people (aged 65 and over) currently account for 1 in 6 residents of the EU-27,
and this proportion is expected to rise to 1 in 5 by 2019 and to 1 in 4 by 2033. Around 2037, the EU population will have twice as many
'older old' (aged 80 and over) as today.
This paper reviews the ways in which population dynamics and structures in Europe shape a need for imported labour. It argues that
European population trends, affecting both supply and demand of domestic labour, will be key players in shaping the demand for migrant
labour. On the supply side, this is mainly because of the future contraction of the young working age population, i.e. a major source of
flexible labour supply available to take up - at least temporarily - lesser skilled, low paid, 'dead-end' jobs. The continuing improvement of
educational attainments is also likely to exacerbate skill mismatches in the labour market. It is difficult to assess the extent to which
economic restructuring may reduce demand for lesser skilled workers in European economies by increasing capital and technology and
outsourcing the production of goods and services to the newly industrialised economies – a trend which has characterised many
industries over the last decades such as textile, manufacturing and the call centres. However, much demand for migrant workers come
from sectors that cannot be outsourced: construction, retail, hospitality, domestic work and health and social care. If the EU Common
Agricultural Policy will continue to subsidise local producers, reliance of the sector on migrant workers is also likely to continue - should
that not be the case the production would probably be outsourced because the sector would not be able to compete on the global market.
On the labour demand side, the magnitude and pace of population ageing raise concern for the provision of care for older people. The
health and social care workforce, already suffering from staff shortages and significantly relying on migrant carers in several European
countries, will need to expand considerably in order to meet the future care needs. The extent to which the increasing demand for care
will imply the need to expand the workforce caring for older adults will depend on a various factors, mainly the prevalence of disabilities
and long-term health conditions and the amount of informal care provided within the family. However, analyses show that demographic
trends will outweigh any reduction that may ensue from a declining incidence of care needs and that increasing labour force participation
rates of women and the decline in co-residence between older people and their children are likely to widen the informal care gap. In the
absence of structural reforms and a step change in the public funding allocated for older adult care - an unlikely scenario given the future
constraints on public expenditure - the sector is likely to continue to rely on a significant number of migrant care workers.
The final part of the paper explores the extent to which immigration policies in the EU are equipped to address the long-term
demographic challenges which will affect the European labour markets. It is argued that the policy implications of these processes are
largely ignored by labour immigration policies, which are usually driven by short-term objectives - e.g. annual reviews of quota systems
and of shortage occupation lists - if not by political agendas treating migration as a security issue. However, some increasing recognition
of the future demographic challenges is becoming apparent at the policy level. Some cases are discussed in the paper: the European
Commission's Policy Plan on Legal Migration, stressing the need for labour immigration to fulfil the Lisbon's employment targets; the
immigration policies devised by the Scottish and Canadian governments pursuing demographic targets as part of their economic growth
strategy; and the heated policy debate in the UK around an immigration-driven demographic boom.
Labour market inclusion and labour market exclusion among youths - What role does immigrant background play?
*Jonas Månsson, Linnaeus University, Sweden
Lennart Delander, Linnaeus University, Sweden
That a large proportion of youths have problems in entering the labour market is a well known fact in Sweden as in other countries (see
e.g. Ungdomsstyrelsen (The Swedish National Youth Board) 2008). Already in the 1990s, the proportion of youths without known
occupation increased in the OECD countries. In Sweden both the size of this group and the growth rate was higher than in other OECD
countries. (See e.g. Ryan 2001; Olofsson et.al. 2003; SOU 2003:92). This study aims to investigate if there are characteristics relating to the
individual, or its parents, that to some extent can explain the variation in the probability of labour market inclusion and labour market
exclusion among youths. Specifically we ask if immigrant background is of importance as regards labour market integration of youth.
Besides having information about the persons own background, we also have information about the native country of his or her parents.
Data and limitations
In order to make possible, at a later stage, an integration of our quantitative analysis with qualitative information, we have limited the
present study to cover only one county–the county of Kronoberg in the southern part of Sweden. The data comprise all individuals 18–24
years old residing in this county one or more of the years between 1997 and 2007. Our conclusions about youths’ labour market status are
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