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Age (years)<br />

52 INFANT FEEDING PRACTICES AND COELIAC DISEASE<br />

children born during summer as compared to winter. It might be that seasonality reflects<br />

a varying exposure to infectious episodes throughout the year, but other possible<br />

explanations should be explored. Another associated factor is the increased risk for<br />

<strong>coeliac</strong> <strong>disease</strong> in Swedish children from the lower as compared to middle and upper<br />

socio-economic strata, suggesting that there are further component causes yet to be<br />

identified.<br />

Structural factors are any change on a societal level influencing the risk for <strong>coeliac</strong><br />

<strong>disease</strong>. However, these must <strong>of</strong> course exhibit their effect through component causes<br />

close to the individual, as illustrated in the depicted model (Fig. 3). These could include<br />

dietary recommendations influencing how gluten is introduced into the infant diet, and<br />

changes in the gluten content in industrially produced infant foods.<br />

What can be learnt from the Swedish epidemic?<br />

What caused the epidemic?<br />

Changes in infant feeding practices have been suspected to contribute to the<br />

Swedish epidemic <strong>of</strong> <strong>coeliac</strong> <strong>disease</strong> in children. To clarify whether or not this was the<br />

case, we used an ecological approach comparing estimated yearly changes in infant<br />

feeding practices with the yearly incidence rate <strong>of</strong> <strong>coeliac</strong> <strong>disease</strong> in children below two<br />

36<br />

years <strong>of</strong> age .<br />

We collected national data for the years 1980 to 1997 on duration <strong>of</strong> breast-feeding<br />

36<br />

and intake <strong>of</strong> gluten-containing cereals in Swedish infants . The latter was estimated<br />

by changes in gluten intake by means <strong>of</strong> industrially produced follow-on formulas as an<br />

estimate <strong>of</strong> changes in total gluten intake. These follow-on formulas, combined with<br />

59<br />

porridge, provide about half <strong>of</strong> the total intake <strong>of</strong> gluten proteins , and <strong>of</strong> that half,<br />

follow-on formulas account for about 90%, according to the manufacturers.<br />

It should be noted that the incidence rate for a particular year in children below two<br />

years <strong>of</strong> age might also be influenced by the exposure pattern <strong>of</strong> the two preceding<br />

years. The reason for this, as illustrated by the Lexis diagram, is that the incidence rate<br />

in children below two years <strong>of</strong> age in 1997, for instance, is based on cases diagnosed<br />

that year, and these children were born during the period 1995 to 1997, which is thus the<br />

period during which they might have been exposed (Fig. 4).<br />

2<br />

Incidence rate in children 0-2 years <strong>of</strong> age in 1997<br />

1<br />

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999<br />

Exposure period<br />

Fig. 4. A Lexis diagram illustrating the population and exposure periods on which the<br />

incidence rate by age is based.

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