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INFANT FEEDING PRACTICES AND COELIAC DISEASE<br />

55<br />

Thus, other casual exposures changing over time must also have contributed to the<br />

epidemic.<br />

However, it is likely that the proportion <strong>of</strong> <strong>coeliac</strong> <strong>disease</strong> cases that might be<br />

avoided by appropriate measures varies among different populations, being higher in<br />

populations with unusually unfavourable environmental exposures, as was apparently<br />

the situation for Swedish infants during the high incidence years <strong>of</strong> the epidemic.<br />

What will follow after the epidemic?<br />

In a Swedish study based on symptomatic adult <strong>coeliac</strong> <strong>disease</strong> patients, the highest<br />

79<br />

age-specific prevalence was reported for people born between 1927 and 1936 , and<br />

interestingly, the majority <strong>of</strong> cases in our population-based adult screening study were<br />

5<br />

also born during that time period . Thus, these studies indicate a cohort effect, i.e. the<br />

life span <strong>of</strong> certain cohorts coincides with environmental exposures that have resulted<br />

in an excess risk for <strong>coeliac</strong> <strong>disease</strong> throughout life.<br />

Accordingly, it might also be that as a consequence <strong>of</strong> an unfavourable exposure<br />

during their first years <strong>of</strong> life, the birth cohorts <strong>of</strong> the epidemic years will carry an<br />

excess risk for <strong>coeliac</strong> <strong>disease</strong> throughout their lives. If so, the cohorts <strong>of</strong> the postepidemic<br />

period might have a decreased lifetime risk for <strong>coeliac</strong> <strong>disease</strong>. Thus far, at<br />

comparable ages the cohorts <strong>of</strong> this later period actually have a lower cumulative<br />

6<br />

1992<br />

6<br />

Cases per 1000 births<br />

5<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1<br />

1989-90<br />

1991<br />

1987-88<br />

1985-86<br />

1983-84<br />

1978-82<br />

1973-77<br />

5<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1<br />

1993<br />

1994<br />

1995<br />

1996<br />

1997<br />

0<br />

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14<br />

Age (years)<br />

0<br />

1998<br />

0 2 4 6<br />

Fig. 7. Cumulative incidence <strong>of</strong> <strong>coeliac</strong> <strong>disease</strong> by age for the birth cohorts from 1973 to<br />

1998. To reduce the graph complexity, the cohorts <strong>of</strong> 1973 to 1982 are aggregated in groups<br />

<strong>of</strong> five, the cohorts <strong>of</strong> 1983 to 1990 in groups <strong>of</strong> two, while the cohorts from 1991 to 1998<br />

are reported separately.

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