usaid/nambia environmental threats and opportunities assessment

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The findings by Turpie et al 2010 can be summarized as follows :- It is predicted with a high degree of certainty that Namibia will experience increasing temperatures which will be higher inland than at the coast (an increase of between 2 - 6°C depending on the locality) It is estimated that for every degree of temperature rise in Namibia, potential evaporation will increases by 5%. It is predicted with a fair degree of certainty that Namibia can expect a 10% decrease in rainfall in the northern and southern regions, and a 20% decrease in the central part of the country by 2050. This situation will worsen with possible rainfall reductions of 20% and 30% respectively by 2080. Despite these predictions there is a possibility that eastern Caprivi will receive more rain, as this (currently) sub-humid area lies on the edge of the ITCZ which, under many predictions, will become wetter in future decades. In all likelihood this will translate into increased rainfall variability in this region. The fire-affected areas of Namibia presently lie above the 250 mm rainfall isohyet and currently affect Caprivi far more than Kunene. With climate change, under the decreasing/more variable rainfall scenario, a commensurate eastward shift in fire frequency is likely which means that Kunene will become less vulnerable to seasonal fire hazards. Future precipitation in the Angolan highlands and Zambia is predicted to increase. This will influence streamflows in Namibia’s northern rivers, which are likely to experience a 10 – 15% increase in water volume – with floods becoming more frequent and of greater magnitude. The cumulative impacts of higher temperature, lower rainfall, lower humidity, higher evaporation rates and lower plant cover will cause dramatically reduced soil moisture and primary production (PP) and a corresponding decline in carrying capacity. Increasing aridification will result in a shift in the hyper-arid desert and arid shrublands eastwards. The reduced primary production of rangelands could be offset to some degree by the CO 2 fertilisation effect. A decline in numbers of large trees in westward flowing ephemeral rivers (linear oases) will occur due to lower water tables, increasing elephant damage and increasing upstream abstraction. A loss of unique (endemic) plant assemblages that occur on the western escarpment is predicted. There is the likelihood of improved availability of arid-adapted veldkos and important INP species (e.g. Commiphora; Harpagophytum & Hoodia). Commiphora ,for example, produces more resins (the valuable INP ingredient) when under stress. With respect to water availability the following responses are expected:- Periodically higher flows in the Kunene River and other north eastern perennial rivers – more intense and frequent flooding events. Lower flows in the Orange river. Declining surface water (small springs, seeps etc) which will affect wildlife presence in the more arid parts of the country. 98 USAID/NAMIBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES ASSESSMENT
Reduced groundwater recharge, lower water tables and threats to valuable ephemeral river habitats The expected responses of selected game species include:- Reduced carrying capacity will lead to a decline of 11-22% in the numbers of the main grazing species. However, in areas where wildlife is below carrying capacity, these impacts may not be as severe. Arid-adapted species (springbok, gemsbok ) experience expansions into the north east; Blue wildebeest, impala & red hartebeest, giraffe range remains unaffected – although giraffe may decline as a result of fewer large trees; Valuable woodland ungulates (e.g. Roan & Sable) will no longer prosper in Etosha/Waterberg but will still be able to survive in Bwabwata, Mudumu and the adjacent conservancies (although may require extra fodder in dry years); Conditions in Caprivi will improve for White Rhino; Possible increase in wetland and floodplain species although riparian forests are likely to have been reduced considerably by 2050 due to insufficient protection/increasing abstraction/pollution from more ambitious irrigation schemes/flood control measures; Elephant distribution may not be affected but they will exert increasing pressure on habitats; There will be increasing incidents of human-wildlife conflict. In addition to the direct responses summarised above, the northern regions of the country will experience the following secondary/ knock-on impacts as a result of the impacts of CC on farming systems and farm-based livelihoods:- A steady decline in rain-fed crop production. Increasing pestilence & higher incidence of crop failure A gradual decline in large livestock carrying capacity Higher irrigation water demand and Increasing use of fertilisers and pesticides. These impacts, in turn, will result in:- Overgrazing and increasing rates of land degradation and biodiversity loss ; Increasing competition and potential conflict over grazing, wildlife, veldkos and INPs which could lead to inter-conservancy conflict; Increased poaching in conservancies and parks; Increasing pressure on MET to allow access to parks for livestock grazing ; Increasing pollution and constraints on ecological reserves, water quality and biodiversity in the perennial rivers; Increasing rates of soil salinisation as a result of irrigation; and USAID/NAMIBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES ASSESSMENT 99
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USAID/NAMBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS
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USAID/NAMIBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS
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TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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ACRONYMS AALS ART BCLME BMC CBM CBN
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NCA NDP NGO NNF NNFU NPC NPP NSF NW
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A group of resourc
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PURPOSE OF THIS ASSESSMENT This doc
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TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY AND TROPIC
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Another potential impact is the CO
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In addition to the overexploitation
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understanding the perspectives of c
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C. METHODOLOGY This assessment was
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The HIV/AIDS epidemic Natural disas
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TOURISM AND WILDLIFE Tourism in Nam
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An underlying cause of increasing H
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Infant mortality as well as under-f
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Figure 3: Levelsels of school enrol
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3. THE LEGISLATIVE AND INSTITUTIONA
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land that was previously used only
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Overall, land productivity, particu
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Marine fisheries are regulated by t
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Figure 5: Namibia’s major biomes
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espectively of their areas protecte
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development of business skills and
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Increasing aridification and a grad
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THREAT: POORLY PLANNED RESETTLEMENT
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Nine of the 15 southern African bre
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Figure 8: Main fishinging areas and
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MAJOR THREAT 2. ONSHORE AND OFFSHOR
Page 62 and 63: Deep-sea mining and diamond dredgin
Page 64 and 65: Increases in frequency and intensit
Page 66 and 67: Catchment issues (mainly pollution
Page 68 and 69: Figure 11. Surface and groundwater
Page 70 and 71: small irrigation projects. Wetlands
Page 72 and 73: Local Authorities (also in MRLGHRD)
Page 74 and 75: MAJOR THREAT 6. CLIMATE CHANGE Base
Page 76 and 77: fenced off informally and illegally
Page 78 and 79: Figure15: Average carrying capacity
Page 80 and 81: VALUE OF RANGELAND PRODUCTS Livesto
Page 82 and 83: MAJOR THREAT 5. BUSH ENCROACHMENT I
Page 84 and 85: Figure 17. Distribution of forests
Page 86 and 87: inadequate. About 50 species of pla
Page 88 and 89: Threats Population growth and pover
Page 90 and 91: 5. CONCLUSIONS Despite some shortfa
Page 92 and 93: Focus in the northwest should be on
Page 94 and 95: RECOMMENDATION: LAND-USE ZONATION E
Page 96 and 97: RECOMMENDATION: DEVELOP SUSTAINABLE
Page 98 and 99: Water and Forestry Debra Mosel Assi
Page 100 and 101: actions meet those needs. By mandat
Page 102 and 103: training led to an 8 percent averag
Page 104 and 105: pollution) to which they and humans
Page 106 and 107: Illustrative Outline: a) Introducti
Page 108 and 109: 9. SELECTED REFERENCE DOCUMENTS
Page 110 and 111: AR4 spatial pattern that suggests m
Page 114 and 115: Increasing human-wildlife conflict.
Page 116 and 117: Batty M, Tjipute M, Sowman M, Cardo
Page 118 and 119: Cury, P., & Roy, C. 1989. Optimal e
Page 120 and 121: Hulme, M. (Ed.). 1996. Climate chan
Page 122 and 123: Namibian National Biodiversity Prog
Page 124 and 125: Resources in Southern Africa: Studi
Page 128: U.S. Agency for International Devel
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