usaid/nambia environmental threats and opportunities assessment

Increasing aridification and a gradual shift in hyper-arid desert and arid shrubland eastwards.
A reduction in ground cover and reduced Net Primary Productivity (NPP) throughout much of
the country by 2050 (exacerbated by 2080). This will result in reduced carrying capacity for
wildlife.
Out of more than 800 plant species that were modeled by Midgely et al (2005), at least 7% are
estimated to shift their distribution range out of Namibia entirely with 52% of species showing
range contractions. 11
Plant assemblages on the western escarpment (which separates the arid desert from the semi-arid
savannas) will be particularly vulnerable to CC. This area is an important center of endemism
which does not extend significantly into the national parks network, but occurs almost
predominantly on communal lands in the Kunene and Erongo regions.
The south and southwestern parts of the country are predicted to experience the greatest
increase in total plant species numbers (arid-adapted species) as well as the lowest proportion of
species loss, whereas much greater species losses are expected to be experienced in the central,
northern, and biodiversity rich eastern areas (Midgley et al. 2005).
Declining surface water (small springs, seeps etc.), which will affect wildlife presence in many of
the northwestern areas.
Reduced groundwater recharge, lower water tables and threats to the ecological water reserve
and valuable ephemeral river habitats.
The expected responses of some game species are presented below. A more detailed description is
presented in Turpie et al (2010):
Reduced carrying capacity will lead to a decline of 11-22% in the numbers of the main grazing
species across the country.
A slight decline in the range of springbok, gemsbok in extreme western areas with minor
expansions into the northeast.
A notable decline in Burchell’s zebra in western areas can be expected as well as a gradual decline
of desert dwelling giraffe and black rhino with declining wooded ephemeral river habitat and
higher temperatures in the western areas.
Blue wildebeest, impala, red hartebeest, and giraffe ranges remain largely unaffected – although
giraffe may decline throughout Namibia as a result of fewer large trees.
Valuable woodland ungulates (e.g. Roan and Sable) will no longer prosper in Etosha/Waterberg
but will still be able to survive in Bwabwata park, Mudumu Park, and the adjacent conservancies
(although may require extra fodder in dry years).
Elephant distribution may not be affected but these animals will exert increasing pressure on
habitats (especially in the arid northwest) which will become self-limiting for this (and other)
species.
11 Earlier studies (Turpie et al, 2002) suggest a complete loss of the unique succulent Karoo biome as a result of reduced winter
rainfall by 2050. These authors also state that the Nama Karoo biome will also contract radically.
38 USAID/NAMIBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES ASSESSMENT