usaid/nambia environmental threats and opportunities assessment

Threats
Population growth and poverty increases pressure on firewood resource and to clear land for crops,
which both drive deforestation
Fire is another major cause of losses of woodland
Charcoal industry is possibly also driving over-exploitation of valuable species
Climate change will cause CO 2 fertilisation, increase rate of bush encroachment
3. ANALYSIS OF MAJOR WEAKNESSES AND THREATS
MAJOR THREAT 1. DEFORESTATION
It is one of the ironies of Namibia that much of the wooded areas of the north suffer from excessive use
of wood and deforestation, while the central areas are heavily encroached with woody growth.
The biggest losses of large areas of woodlands and forests have occurred from clearing of land for crop
cultivation, cutting of trees for firewood and construction, and the frequent burning and killing of trees
by veld fires in the northeast. Most rural “farmers” rely heavily on off-farm incomes derived mostly
from employment in towns and remittances, and it is this component of livelihoods that offers the
greatest opportunity for relieving pressure on natural resources in rural areas. Secondly, the issue of
runaway fires that burn large areas of northeastern Namibia almost annually, needs to be addressed.
MAJOR THREAT 2. OVER-EXPLOITATION OF NON-ENCROACHER TREES DURING ACTIVITIES TO
COMBAT BUSH ENCROACHMENT
The charcoal industry and bush-to-electricity projects generate employment and income while combating
bush encroachment, and are worthwhile economic activities. However, there is also an element of illegal
cutting of non-encroacher trees, those which are valuable as fodder and/or legally protected, which is
occurring, and is likely to increase as bush harvesting enterprises grow. At the same time, there is
inadequate law enforcement from the Directorate of Forestry to monitor and/or prevent such activities.
This issue might be addressed through the establishment of the Namibia Woodlands Council, which
could support the Directorate of Forestry in its administration and permitting, and make DoF staff
available for field work and law enforcement. The concept of “Honorary Foresters” – members of the
public who are granted some authority to monitor bush cutting and prevent illegal cutting of the wrong
trees – also deserves attention.
MAJOR THREAT 3. CLIMATE CHANGE
An overview of expected climate scenarios for Namibia is provided in Annex C.
As a result of these predictions, most of Namibia’s tree and shrub savannah biome (comprised of
Broad-leafed and Acacia savanna) will experience a gradual aridification in future decades. It is generally
accepted that there will be a shift from grassy savanna to more arid shrubland in response to more
frequent and intense droughts and the predicted 10% - 20 % drop in annual precipitation (in Turpie et al.
2010)
In the eastern part of Caprivi the response of the broad-leafed savanna to climate change is less
predictable than the more western areas. This area, which straddles the edge of the high rainfall ITCZ,
although subject to high variability, receives the highest rainfall in Namibia (> 600mm) and consequently
supports the greatest abundance and diversity of plants and animals found in the country. It is
characterized by diverse woodland with varying bush and grass undergrowth. The diversity and richness
of the broad-leafed forests in this area is further enhanced by several large river systems (Zambezi-
Chobe-Linyanti, Kwando, Okavango) which flow through the area creating a landscape of wetlands,
floodplains, and riparian forests. Future precipitation in the Angolan highlands and Zambia (which fall
well within the ITCZ) is predicted to increase in response to climate change (de Wit & Stankiewicz 2006).
74 USAID/NAMIBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES ASSESSMENT