usaid/nambia environmental threats and opportunities assessment

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MAJOR THREAT 6. CLIMATE CHANGE Based on the expected climate scenarios for Namibia it is predicted with a fair degree of certainty that Namibia will experience a 10% decrease in rainfall in the northern and southern regions, and a 20% decrease in the central part of the country (from current values) by 2050 (Turpie et al 2010). This situation will worsen with possible rainfall reductions of 20% and 30% respectively by 2080. Despite these predictions there is a fairly high possibility that eastern Caprivi will receive more rain, as this (currently) sub-humid area lies on the edge of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which, under most scenarios, will become wetter in future decades. Increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration, together with the likelihood of lower and more variable precipitation throughout most of Namibia, will have severe impacts on runoff, streamflow, and hydrology in the country. Consequently, the following constraints which currently challenge national and regional water resources and which threaten the ecological reserves and essential goods and services provided by Namibia’s wetland systems, are likely to be severely exacerbated by 2050. Reduced rates of aquifer recharge and lowering of the water table across most of the country. Literature quoted by Dirkx et al (2008) suggests that groundwater recharge may suffer a reduction of 30-70% by 2050 -2060. Increasing water scarcity in central and southern Namibia. Declining surface water (natural springs, seeps etc) and higher rates of evaporation from dams. Escalating financial costs of supplying adequate water for agriculture, mining, and domestic use. There may be a drive to increase the numbers of emergency boreholes in remote rural areas, which will (as it has done in the past) encourage the settlement of previously nomadic populations. This, in turn, will increase rates of land degradation. An increase in transboundary issues with upstream users (including Angola and Zamibia in the case of the northern perennial rivers, and South Africa and Lesotho in the case of the Orange/Senqu basin), and downstream users (Botswana in the case of the Okavango basin). Increasing water demand and water pollution by a growing, rapidly urbanizing population and more ambitious irrigation schemes. Water demand for irrigation is expected to increase dramatically throughout southern Africa as a result of climate change and, as a direct result of higher temperatures and evaporative demand, virtually all irrigated lands in southern Africa will require between 10%- 30% more water applications per annum (Schultze, 2005 (b)). From a biodiversity perspective, the impacts of CC on water availability are likely to be severe – especially in western Namibia, where ephemeral rives and the trees they support act as linear oases that provide essential fodder and habitats for many species. The decline in surface water (small springs and seeps) in the more arid areas will affect bird and game populations negatively. Reduced inflows into the Etosha Pan may impact on the natural springs around the southern parts of the pan and on the breeding of some important species (including Greater and Lesser Flamingo). 4. OPPORTUNITIES Opportunities are available regarding technological innovations in the irrigation, water recycling, and artificial recharge spheres, waste management including incinerators, desalinization development, and continued efforts regarding awareness and education, at all levels of society regarding Namibia’s limited water resources. 60 USAID/NAMIBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES ASSESSMENT
5. CONCLUSIONS Despite Namibia’s aridity and unfavorable circumstances with respect to rainfall, surface, and groundwater resources, the country has been able to meet the growing demand for water to sustain development. The draft IWRM Plan (MAWF 2010) concludes that Namibia still does have sufficient water to meet the goals of 2030. However, the environmental implications of this increased demand on the affected ecosystems and the hydrological cycle have not been well considered, and many existing environmental problems are going to increase in severity as the demand rises. The most important issue in integrated water resource management is the human element itself, since if you have well skilled managers (from local level all the way up to the highest decision makers) then the problems can be addressed. Thus the critical shortage of skills in this sector is of great concern. D. RANGELAND RESOURCES 1. BACKGROUND INFORMATION VITAL STATISTICS More land is used for agriculture than any other activity in Namibia: about 64 million hectares or 78% of the country is used for farming (Mendelsohn 2006). Of this, ranching of cattle and small stock, combined with small-scale cereal production on (the communal) part of the area, accounts for almost all of the land, and less than 1% is for intensive (irrigated crop) agriculture. Protected areas and private game farms also depend on productivity from their rangelands, so it can be said that almost all agricultural production relies on this broad category: rangelands. Table 5: Estimated numbers of humans and livestock (Source: Mendelsohn, 2006) Animals People Goats Sheep Cattle Population 2.1 million 2.4 million 2.4 million 2.3 million Wildlife 2.1 million + Despite the high proportions of farmland and households living on farms, agriculture contributes a low and declining percentage of Namibia’s GDP. The whole agricultural sector made up only 4% of GDP in 2007 (Ndishishi 2007), of which just less than two-thirds came from meat products. This is in stark comparison to the agricultural sector’s contribution of 16% in 1976 (Werner and Odendaal 2010). Livestock in 2007 contributed 76% of the overall agricultural output, 70% coming from the freehold areas and the remaining 6% from communal areas. TYPES OF LAND TENURE – COMMUNAL AND FREEHOLD A major determinant of the kind of farming activity which happens on rangeland is land tenure (Figure 14). Freehold or “commercial” farms (totaling 43% of the country) are privately owned and mostly farm livestock for marketing, locally, to South Africa or overseas. Communal land (36% of the land) is theoretically for “open access farming” – where grazing, soils, and other natural resources are owned by the state and available for use by local people, under the control of Traditional Authorities. (It is important to stress “theoretical” because about 4% is used privately and much of the remaining 32% is USAID/NAMIBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES ASSESSMENT 61
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USAID/NAMBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS
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USAID/NAMIBIA ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS
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TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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ACRONYMS AALS ART BCLME BMC CBM CBN
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NCA NDP NGO NNF NNFU NPC NPP NSF NW
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A group of resourc
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PURPOSE OF THIS ASSESSMENT This doc
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TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY AND TROPIC
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Another potential impact is the CO
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In addition to the overexploitation
Page 24 and 25: understanding the perspectives of c
Page 26 and 27: C. METHODOLOGY This assessment was
Page 28 and 29: The HIV/AIDS epidemic Natural disas
Page 30 and 31: TOURISM AND WILDLIFE Tourism in Nam
Page 32 and 33: An underlying cause of increasing H
Page 34 and 35: Infant mortality as well as under-f
Page 36 and 37: Figure 3: Levelsels of school enrol
Page 38 and 39: 3. THE LEGISLATIVE AND INSTITUTIONA
Page 40 and 41: land that was previously used only
Page 42 and 43: Overall, land productivity, particu
Page 44 and 45: Marine fisheries are regulated by t
Page 46 and 47: Figure 5: Namibia’s major biomes
Page 48 and 49: espectively of their areas protecte
Page 50 and 51: development of business skills and
Page 52 and 53: Increasing aridification and a grad
Page 54 and 55: THREAT: POORLY PLANNED RESETTLEMENT
Page 56 and 57: Nine of the 15 southern African bre
Page 58 and 59: Figure 8: Main fishinging areas and
Page 60 and 61: MAJOR THREAT 2. ONSHORE AND OFFSHOR
Page 62 and 63: Deep-sea mining and diamond dredgin
Page 64 and 65: Increases in frequency and intensit
Page 66 and 67: Catchment issues (mainly pollution
Page 68 and 69: Figure 11. Surface and groundwater
Page 70 and 71: small irrigation projects. Wetlands
Page 72 and 73: Local Authorities (also in MRLGHRD)
Page 76 and 77: fenced off informally and illegally
Page 78 and 79: Figure15: Average carrying capacity
Page 80 and 81: VALUE OF RANGELAND PRODUCTS Livesto
Page 82 and 83: MAJOR THREAT 5. BUSH ENCROACHMENT I
Page 84 and 85: Figure 17. Distribution of forests
Page 86 and 87: inadequate. About 50 species of pla
Page 88 and 89: Threats Population growth and pover
Page 90 and 91: 5. CONCLUSIONS Despite some shortfa
Page 92 and 93: Focus in the northwest should be on
Page 94 and 95: RECOMMENDATION: LAND-USE ZONATION E
Page 96 and 97: RECOMMENDATION: DEVELOP SUSTAINABLE
Page 98 and 99: Water and Forestry Debra Mosel Assi
Page 100 and 101: actions meet those needs. By mandat
Page 102 and 103: training led to an 8 percent averag
Page 104 and 105: pollution) to which they and humans
Page 106 and 107: Illustrative Outline: a) Introducti
Page 108 and 109: 9. SELECTED REFERENCE DOCUMENTS
Page 110 and 111: AR4 spatial pattern that suggests m
Page 112 and 113: The findings by Turpie et al 2010 c
Page 114 and 115: Increasing human-wildlife conflict.
Page 116 and 117: Batty M, Tjipute M, Sowman M, Cardo
Page 118 and 119: Cury, P., & Roy, C. 1989. Optimal e
Page 120 and 121: Hulme, M. (Ed.). 1996. Climate chan
Page 122 and 123: Namibian National Biodiversity Prog
Page 124 and 125:
Resources in Southern Africa: Studi
Page 128:
U.S. Agency for International Devel
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