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Executive summary This report presents the results of a Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) study into the detailed modelling and forecasting of greenhouse gas emissions from the Australian transport sector. The study was undertaken on behalf of the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), the federal agency formerly responsible for administering programs under the Australian Government’s climate change strategies. The projection results (referred to herein as ‘Base Case 2007’ projections) were provided to the AGO in August 2007 (as a consultancy report under BITRE’s then title—Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, BTRE). The Department of Climate Change (DCC), which now encompasses the portfolio responsibility previously held by the AGO, has used BITRE’s Base Case 2007 projection results within their latest reports dealing with transport sector emission trends (DCC 2008a, 2008b). This study updates earlier projections provided to the AGO in previous years; including aggregate (unpublished) trend projections in August 2006, detailed modal projections in August 2005—published in the commissioned report BTRE (2006a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections to 2020— and in July 2003, as an unpublished consultancy report; see BTRE (2003b), Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2020: Projected Trends for Australian Transport (Information Sheet 21), for a summary of that year’s study results. These more recent projection studies extend and update base case projections of transport sector greenhouse gas emissions published in BTRE (2002a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020 (Report 107). BTRE (2002a) had in turn updated previous BITRE projections of transport sector emissions, published in BTCE (1995a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Long-term projections (Report 88), and BTCE (1996a), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions (Report 94). The greenhouse projection update studies subsequent to BTRE (2002a) have used results from another detailed study into the modelling of road vehicle emissions: BTRE (2003c), Urban Pollutant Emissions from Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends To 2020. Further revisions to such activity and emission estimates are generally prepared periodically, as part of ongoing BITRE research. The emission projections are estimated using a ‘base case’ scenario (or ‘business-asusual’), for the 13 (financial) years between 2007 and 2020. The specific scenario, based on current trends, adopts what are considered the most likely future movements in travel behaviour, vehicle technology, economic indicators and demography, and also incorporates the likely impact of the greenhouse gas abatement measures that Australian governments had already fully committed to (by June 2007). That is, the effects of future abatement measures are not included in the Base Case 2007 projections, and would be the focus of further policy scenarios. In particular, the report does not take account of the Australian Government’s planned Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS). xv
BITRE | Working paper 73 Therefore, possible effects of the CPRS on the transport sector are not included in the current base case (and for now remain the subject of policy scenario analyses). As mentioned previously, this study was originally commissioned by the AGO and, following AGO specifications, the emission estimates presented in this report are generally given in terms of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) equivalent ‘direct’ emissions. That is, most values are weighted totals (relative to an equivalent mass of CO 2 ) which include only the ‘directly’ radiative gases CO 2 , CH 4 (methane) and N 2 O (nitrous oxide), and do not include the indirect effects of gases such as CO (carbon monoxide), NO x (nitrogen oxides) and NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds). Note that, for information, some order-of-magnitude estimates for trends in such indirect gases are provided in Chapter 5 (and the Appendix) of the report. To comply with AGO/DCC sectoral emission inventory requirements, the emission estimates also generally refer to ‘energy end use’ (i.e. are from the direct combustion of fuel in the transport vehicles, and do not include further energy used to extract, refine or otherwise provide that fuel for vehicle use). However, for completeness and to aid consistent modal comparisons, estimates of full fuel cycle emissions from total domestic transport activities are also given in a latter section of the report (see Chapter 5 and Appendix tables A30 to A31). Emissions from Australia’s civil domestic transport sector in 2010 are projected, under the base case scenario assumptions (and the above classification/definitional details), to be around 48.1 per cent above the level for 1990, reaching 91.5 million tonnes of direct CO 2 equivalent (from transport energy end use). By 2020, BITRE projects such base case emissions to be around 70.3 per cent above 1990 levels (at about 105.2 million tonnes of direct CO 2 equivalent). Within the aggregate forecast growth in domestic transport emissions over the projection period (at close to 1.6 per cent per annum, 2007 to 2020), emission totals for civil aviation, commercial road vehicles and rail energy end use (i.e. non-electric railways) are all projected to have reasonably strong rates of growth (averaging above 2 per cent per annum). The passenger car fleet will remain the single largest contributor to total sector emissions (at around 47 per cent of 2020 domestic transport output), but is expected to exhibit a slower rate of growth (of around 0.86 per cent per annum between 2007 and 2020). Emissions from the maritime sector (coastal shipping, ferries and pleasure craft) are forecast to grow at around 1.2 per cent per annum (2007–20). Table ES1 and Figure ES1 summarise the BITRE base case projections for 2007 (where the table focuses on expected emissions growth to 2010 and 2020), along with an indication of the possible sensitivity range in the projections (assuming all the major input assumptions are varied simultaneously to either increase or decrease total emission estimates). These latest BITRE projections exhibit a similar overall trend to the projections previously provided to the AGO (e.g. see BTRE 2006a and BTRE 2003b), with all the major sectoral contributions exhibiting reasonably comparable rates of projected growth. The aggregate emissions growth to 2020 is slightly lower in the updated projections, Base Case 2007, in comparison to the last published results (BTRE 2006a), with the 2020 domestic transport sector total of 105.2 million tonnes CO 2 equivalent being around 1 per cent lower than the BTRE Base Case 2005 projection endpoint result (see Figure ES2). The trend line for the current base case projection lies below xvi
Page 1 and 2: Greenhouse gas emissions from Austr
Page 3 and 4: ISSN 1440-9707 ISBN 978-1-921260-32
Page 6: At a glance • This paper presents
Page 9 and 10: Figures Figure ES1 Figure ES2 Figur
Page 11 and 12: Tables Table ES1 Table 1.1 Table 1.
Page 13 and 14: Table A9 Table A10 Table A11 Table
Page 18 and 19: Executive summary that of Base Case
Page 20 and 21: Executive summary • the treatment
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary Table ES1 Emissio
Page 24 and 25: Executive summary Figure ES2 Compar
Page 26 and 27: Chapter 1 Aggregate base case proje
Page 28 and 29: Chapter 1 | Aggregate base case pro
Page 34 and 35: Chapter 2 Projections by transport
Page 36 and 37: Chapter 2 | Projections by transpor
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BITRE | Working paper 73 The NGGI e
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BITRE | Working paper 73 The curren
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Table 3.1
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Chapter 4 Sensitivity analyses The
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Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Ta
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Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Fi
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Chapter 5 Projection and estimation
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Chapter 5 | Projection and estimati
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A2 C
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A5 B
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A11
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References ABARE 2006, Energy Proje
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References BTE 1999a, Analysis of t
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References EIA 2006, Annual Energy
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References Rypdal, Berntsen, Fugles
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BITRE | Working paper 73 ACG 1997,
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Hoekman, S
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Abbreviations 4WD AAA ABARE ABS AGO
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Abbreviations MVEm Motor Vehicle Em
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