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Chapter 5 | Projection and estimation uncertainties • biofuels • non-conventional petroleum—e.g. sourced from shale oils, or liquids converted from coal (CTL) or natural gas (GTL) using methods such as the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Process—which could lead to increasing carbon intensity levels if not allied with CO 2 capture and storage during the processing • successful commercialisation and use of new technologies such as hydrogen-fed fuel cells. However, given the generally long lead times required for substantial mass-market penetration of new energy technologies, the significant levels of research and development still required for some alternatives, and that the price comparisons for many alternatives may not become attractive until after the conventional oil production peak, it is not very likely that more than a minor share of transport petroleum use will be substituted within the projection timeframe (of between now and 2020). Figure 5.1 Projected fuel mix for Australian passenger cars to 2020 25 20 Million litres (thousand) 15 10 50 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Ethanol CNG 2002 2004 LPG ADO 2006 2008 PULP ULP 2010 2012 LRP LP 2014 2016 2018 2020 Notes: Sources: Ethanol is generally sold in a 10 per cent blend with automotive gasoline (petrol). CNG—compressed natural gas (in litres of petrol equivalent, on an energy content basis) LPG—liquefied petroleum gas ADO—automotive diesel oil PULP—premium unleaded petrol (including special proprietary brands) ULP—unleaded petrol LRP—lead replacement petrol (including all petrol altered by additives to combat valve seat recession) LP—leaded petrol BTRE (2006a, 2002a, 2003c) and BITRE estimates. 69
BITRE | Working paper 73 Since the preparation of the Base Case 2007 projections, changes to underlying parameters have included: • historically high oil prices during 2008, and upward revisions to oil price forecasts by the major international energy agencies (such as the EIA and IEA). • the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), also during 2008, with the consequent slowing in current economic growth rates—though with the general expectation that long-term economic growth will be largely unaffected. • upward revision to ABS mid-range (series B) population projections (see ABS 2008). For some indication of the effects on the demand projections flowing from the higher population projections, see the BITRE-CSIRO appendix to the recent Treasury (2008) report on modelling climate change mitigation, (BITRE and CSIRO 2008) and a recent conference paper on the BITRE modelling (Cosgrove 2008). For an indication of the likely transport demand impacts of the economic slowdown, see a recent BITRE conference presentation (Cosgrove 2009). As mentioned previously, scenario analyses addressing high future oil prices are ongoing. The combined effects (on the overall projection levels) from these changes to potential parameter values, though likely to be significant over the longer term, will probably be relatively slight over the medium term (to 2020) addressed by this report. Problems associated with estimating only direct emissions The main emission projection values in this study (see Tables 1.1 and 1.2), in accordance with AGO specifications, include only direct CO 2 equivalent emissions, i.e. only the effects of the directly radiative gases emitted from transport fuel use: carbon dioxide, methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O). The AGO-specified Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for calculating the CO 2 equivalent mass estimates for emissions of methane and nitrous oxide (21 times for CH 4 and 310 times for N 2 O, using a reference period for warming effects of 100 years) are from previous IPCC (1996, 1997) guidelines on national greenhouse gas inventories that are currently used in Kyoto Protocol emission calculations. The most recent IPCC estimates of these GWP values (IPCC 2007a) are of similar magnitude (i.e. 25 times for CH 4 and 298 times for N 2 O, over a 100 year reference period). Due to the difficulty in accurately quantifying global averages for warming due to ‘indirect’ greenhouse effects (i.e. the effects of atmospherically short-lived gases such as carbon monoxide, which are not radiatively active themselves but which can influence the concentrations of the direct gases), IPCC (1996, 1997) reports used for the Kyoto Protocol factors did not give any GWP values for indirect greenhouse gases, 3 though estimates were provided of the total radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone formed from such indirect gases. The standard (CO 2 equivalent) greenhouse gas emission estimates would be significantly higher if the indirect effects of other gases emitted from transport—particularly the ozone precursors 3. Note that an earlier IPCC (1990) report attempted to roughly quantify the indirect effects using a GWP approach, and more recent IPCC research reports (e.g. see IPCC 2001, http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/249.htm) have also discussed ways to incorporate the indirect gases into a basic GWP reporting formulism. IPCC (2001) presents a possible carbon monoxide GWP of between 1 and 3. 70
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Greenhouse gas emissions from Austr
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ISSN 1440-9707 ISBN 978-1-921260-32
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At a glance • This paper presents
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Figures Figure ES1 Figure ES2 Figur
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Tables Table ES1 Table 1.1 Table 1.
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Table A9 Table A10 Table A11 Table
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Executive summary This report prese
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Executive summary that of Base Case
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Executive summary • the treatment
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Executive summary Table ES1 Emissio
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Executive summary Figure ES2 Compar
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Chapter 1 Aggregate base case proje
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Chapter 1 | Aggregate base case pro
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Chapter 2 Projections by transport
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Chapter 2 | Projections by transpor
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A29
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A31
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References ABARE 2006, Energy Proje
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References BTE 1999a, Analysis of t
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References EIA 2006, Annual Energy
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References Rypdal, Berntsen, Fugles
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BITRE | Working paper 73 ACG 1997,
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Hoekman, S
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Abbreviations 4WD AAA ABARE ABS AGO
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Abbreviations MVEm Motor Vehicle Em
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