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Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Figure 4.4 Sensitivity of total transport emission projections to traffic congestion response parameters 120 Direct CO 2 equivalent emissions gigagrams (thousand) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 High congestion Base case Low congestion Sources: BTCE (1996b), BTRE (2007a, 2006a, 2003a, 2003c, 2002a) and BITRE estimates. Fuel intensity Altering assumed penetration rates for fuel-efficient technology (as per the assumptions detailed below) changes 2010 base case values (for total transport emissions) by slightly more than one per cent, and 2020 emission totals by approximately 6 per cent. The ‘low fuel intensity’ scenario assumes that, by the end of the projection period: • new passenger cars are 15 per cent more fuel efficient than for the base case trend improvement, and new LCVs are 10 per cent more fuel efficient than for the base case trend improvement • the fuel consumption rate and average load parameters for rigid trucks change over time such that the average freight task efficiency of the fleet improves by 0.2 per cent per annum faster than the base case trend improvement (in megajoules per tonne kilometre terms) • the fuel consumption rate and average load parameters for articulated trucks change over time such that the average freight task efficiency of the fleet improves by 0.5 per cent per annum faster than the base case trend improvement (in megajoules per tonne kilometre terms) • the average fuel intensity for all other transport fleets is 10 per cent below the base case trend. 57
BITRE | Working paper 73 The ‘high fuel intensity’ scenario assumes that, by the end of the projection period: • new passenger cars are 15 per cent less fuel efficient than for the base case trend improvement, and new LCVs are 10 per cent less fuel efficient than for the base case trend improvement • the fuel consumption rate and average load parameters for rigid trucks change over time such that the average freight task efficiency of the fleet improves by 0.2 per cent per annum slower than the base case trend improvement (in megajoules per tonne kilometre terms) • the fuel consumption rate and average load parameters for articulated trucks change over time such that the average freight task efficiency of the fleet improves by 0.5 per cent per annum slower than the base case trend improvement (in megajoules per tonne kilometre terms) • the average fuel intensity for all other transport fleets is 10 per cent above the base case trend. 58
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Greenhouse gas emissions from Austr
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ISSN 1440-9707 ISBN 978-1-921260-32
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At a glance • This paper presents
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Figures Figure ES1 Figure ES2 Figur
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Tables Table ES1 Table 1.1 Table 1.
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Table A9 Table A10 Table A11 Table
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Executive summary This report prese
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Executive summary that of Base Case
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Executive summary • the treatment
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Executive summary Table ES1 Emissio
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Executive summary Figure ES2 Compar
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Chapter 1 Aggregate base case proje
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Chapter 1 | Aggregate base case pro
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Chapter 1 | Aggregate base case pro
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Page 34 and 35: Chapter 2 Projections by transport
Page 36 and 37: Chapter 2 | Projections by transpor
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Page 72 and 73: Chapter 4 Sensitivity analyses The
Page 74 and 75: Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Ta
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Page 90 and 91: Chapter 5 Projection and estimation
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A17
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References ABARE 2006, Energy Proje
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References BTE 1999a, Analysis of t
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References EIA 2006, Annual Energy
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References Rypdal, Berntsen, Fugles
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BITRE | Working paper 73 ACG 1997,
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Hoekman, S
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Abbreviations 4WD AAA ABARE ABS AGO
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Abbreviations MVEm Motor Vehicle Em
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