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Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis
Table 4.2
High GDP and population sensitivity: greenhouse gas emissions for
Australian transport, 1990–2020
Financial year Motor vehicles Rail (non-electric) Maritime Aviation Total
(gigagrams of direct CO 2
equivalent)
1990 54 790 1 733 2 387 2 833 61 743
1991 53 824 1 725 2 083 3 517 61 149
1992 54 557 1 676 2 142 3 817 62 191
1993 56 213 1 650 1 951 4 012 63 825
1994 57 696 1 783 1 817 4 245 65 538
1995 59 858 1 734 2 321 5 003 68 909
1996 61 266 1 687 2 445 5 491 70 874
1997 62 179 1 719 2 436 5 863 72 174
1998 63 336 1 747 2 135 5 318 72 504
1999 64 622 1 797 1 843 5 120 73 339
2000 65 928 1 863 1 926 5 352 75 003
2001 65 519 1 829 1 772 5 963 74 981
2002 67 449 1 914 1 792 5 347 76 367
2003 69 428 1 965 1 798 5 103 78 181
2004 71 970 2 109 1 923 5 337 81 295
2005 72 721 2 266 2 146 5 678 82 767
2006 72 878 2 338 2 085 6 303 83 506
2007 74 610 2 415 2 177 6 872 85 853
Forecasts
2008 75 934 2 545 2 245 7 091 87 517
2009 78 035 2 655 2 312 7 327 89 952
2010 79 748 2 757 2 384 7 566 92 001
2011 81 335 2 851 2 437 7 808 93 898
2012 82 897 2 920 2 453 8 020 95 678
2013 84 413 2 991 2 474 8 218 97 458
2014 85 973 3 077 2 501 8 408 99 296
2015 87 592 3 158 2 526 8 587 101 176
2016 89 163 3 237 2 550 8 744 102 993
2017 90 765 3 311 2 568 8 898 104 827
2018 92 368 3 384 2 582 9 052 106 658
2019 94 106 3 460 2 598 9 205 108 627
2020 95 760 3 541 2 617 9 362 110 511
Notes: The ‘high’ scenario assumes an increase of 0.5 per cent per annum in the base case values for real Australian
GDP growth over the projection period, and a 0.1 per cent decrease in per annum population growth relative
to the base case.
‘Motor vehicles’ include all road vehicles plus off-road recreational vehicles. ‘Aviation’ includes emissions from
general aviation as well as airlines. ‘Maritime’ includes emissions from small pleasure craft and ferries as well
as coastal shipping.
Energy supply emissions are not included (i.e. rail does not include emissions from electricity generation).
Biomass derived emissions are also not included (i.e. CO 2
emissions from the combustion of biofuels are
excluded).
Emissions are direct greenhouse gas emissions only—carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (i.e. do
not include indirect effects of gases such as the ozone precursors carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide);
converted into CO 2
equivalent figures using AGO-preferred values for the Global Warming Potentials (of 21
for methane and 310 for nitrous oxide).
Sources: BTCE (1996a), BTRE (2007d, 2006a, 2003b, 2002a), VTPI (2007) and BITRE estimates.
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