PDF: 9795 KB - Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Executive summary Figure ES2 Comparison of updated BITRE Base Case 2007 transport projections with previous aggregate base case results 120 100 Gigagrams CO 2 equivalent (thousand) 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Base Case 2005 Base Case 2006 Base Case 2007 Notes: Sources: Emission estimates relate to energy end use, and exclude CO 2 released from the in-vehicle combustion of biofuels. Gigagrams = 10 9 grams, equivalent to thousand tonnes. Totals include only direct greenhouse gases (i.e. do not include the indirect, and difficult to quantify, average warming effects of other gas species such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds and carbon soot particles). See Appendix Table A28 for a summary of the previously unpublished Base Case 2006 results. BITRE estimates, BTRE (2006a, 2003a, 2003b). • energy used for the movement of oil and gas by pipeline • full transport system or life cycle effects (i.e. extra emissions caused by transport vehicle manufacture and disposal, and by transport infrastructure construction and operation). The resulting BITRE estimate for the aggregate radiative forcing contribution of all Australian transport activity (under the above inclusions) is approximately 168.4 million tonnes for 2007. This value encompasses total CO 2 equivalent emissions (direct and indirect effects), for the Australian transport sector’s energy use (domestic and international, using the fuel allocation detailed above) on a full transport systemcycle basis; with the level projected to increase by close to 25 per cent by 2020, to about 210.2 million tonnes (total CO 2 equivalent). Allowing for the additional effects of fugitive halocarbon releases from motor vehicle air conditioners raises the 2007 estimated total to about 174 million tonnes and the 2020 total to about 215 million tonnes (of total CO 2 equivalent emissions). Such order-of-magnitude estimates for complete transport sector contributions to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect are around double Kyoto-accounting totals (for domestic end use, direct CO2 equivalent, such as given in Table ES1), and are projected to follow a slightly different trend into the future. Though these more comprehensive aggregates are only ‘ballpark’ estimates, their differing levels (and xxiii
BITRE | Working paper 73 projected growth patterns), from the standard inventory accounting totals, serve to prompt the observation: that the appraisal of emission abatement measures could be affected if solely changes in direct end use emission levels are used in the assessment process, rather than also considering the total effects over the full transport system and its energy supply processes (including emissions of all relevant gas species, from all relevant sources). xxiv
Page 1 and 2: Greenhouse gas emissions from Austr
Page 3 and 4: ISSN 1440-9707 ISBN 978-1-921260-32
Page 6: At a glance • This paper presents
Page 9 and 10: Figures Figure ES1 Figure ES2 Figur
Page 11 and 12: Tables Table ES1 Table 1.1 Table 1.
Page 13 and 14: Table A9 Table A10 Table A11 Table
Page 16 and 17: Executive summary This report prese
Page 18 and 19: Executive summary that of Base Case
Page 20 and 21: Executive summary • the treatment
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary Table ES1 Emissio
Page 26 and 27: Chapter 1 Aggregate base case proje
Page 28 and 29: Chapter 1 | Aggregate base case pro
Page 34 and 35: Chapter 2 Projections by transport
Page 36 and 37: Chapter 2 | Projections by transpor
Page 54: Chapter 2 | Projections by transpor
Page 57 and 58: BITRE | Working paper 73 price proj
Page 59 and 60: BITRE | Working paper 73 population
Page 61 and 62: BITRE | Working paper 73 the high p
Page 63 and 64: BITRE | Working paper 73 only on th
Page 65 and 66: BITRE | Working paper 73 The NGGI e
Page 67 and 68: BITRE | Working paper 73 The curren
Page 69 and 70: BITRE | Working paper 73 Table 3.1
Page 72 and 73: Chapter 4 Sensitivity analyses The
Page 74 and 75:
Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Ta
Page 76 and 77:
Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Fi
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Page 84 and 85:
Page 86 and 87:
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Chapter 5 Projection and estimation
Page 92 and 93:
Chapter 5 | Projection and estimati
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116:
Page 119 and 120:
BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A2 C
Page 121 and 122:
BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A5 B
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A11
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 150 and 151:
References ABARE 2006, Energy Proje
Page 152 and 153:
References BTE 1999a, Analysis of t
Page 154 and 155:
References EIA 2006, Annual Energy
Page 156:
References Rypdal, Berntsen, Fugles
Page 159 and 160:
BITRE | Working paper 73 ACG 1997,
Page 161 and 162:
BITRE | Working paper 73 Hoekman, S
Page 164 and 165:
Abbreviations 4WD AAA ABARE ABS AGO
Page 166:
Abbreviations MVEm Motor Vehicle Em
show all

PDF: 9795 KB - Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?