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Chapter 2 | Projections by transport mode
Figure 2.5 Base case projected growth in greenhouse gas emissions by road
vehicles for Australia, 1990–2020
Gigagrams, direct CO 2
equivalent from energy end use (thousand)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Notes:
0
Sources:
1990
1992
1994
1996
Emission estimates relate to energy end use (i.e. do not include emissions from fuel supply and processing).
Emissions exclude CO 2
released from the combustion of biofuels.
Cars include 4WD passenger vehicles (‘All Terrain Wagons’—ATWs). LCVs refers to light commercial
vehicles.
‘Rigid’ refers to all non-articulated truck types.
ABARE (2007a), ABS (2006a and earlier), BTE (1999a), BTRE (2002a, 2003a, 2006a, 2007a), DITR (2007a,
2004) and BITRE estimates.
Rail sector emission projections
1998
2000
2002
Motorcycle
Rigid
2004
Bus
LCV
End use emissions (i.e. excluding power generation for electric rail) from the Australian
rail transport sector in 2010 are projected (in the current BITRE base case), to be around
58 per cent above the level for 1990, reaching 2.74 million tonnes of CO 2
equivalent.
By 2020, the projected base case emissions (end use) for rail transport increase to
about 79 per cent above 1990 levels (at 3.34 million tonnes of CO 2
equivalent).
BITRE’s methodology uses a combination of mathematical and econometric models
to project rail passenger and freight tasks and the resulting energy consumption. Rail
uses both petroleum-based fuels (primarily diesel) and electricity, so total energy
consumption (expressed in petajoules of energy end use and modelled as the product
of the railway tasks and of respective energy intensity levels) has to be disaggregated
carefully when calculating emissions. BITRE’s models forecast total rail emissions,
both from non-electric rail (direct fuel combustion) and electric rail (emissions due
to the required electric power generation). However, since AGO/DCC inventory
processes only allocate non-electric rail emissions to the transport sector (electricity
used by railways being accounted for in the stationary energy sector), most tables in
this report do not include electric rail emissions (though they are included in some
sections of the report for the sake of completeness).
2006
2008
2010
2012
Articulated
Passenger cars
2014
2016
2018
2020
17