PDF: 9795 KB - Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Chapter 1 Aggregate base case projections This report presents projections to 2020 of greenhouse gas emissions from Australian domestic (civil) transport. The underlying projections of vehicle fuel consumption are derived from BITRE base case projections of transport demand, and the consequent levels of vehicle activity (allowing for differing vehicle operating conditions for metropolitan and non-metropolitan travel). This work extends and updates base case projections of transport sector greenhouse gas emissions published in BTRE (2002a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, (Report 107) and subsequent projections provided to the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), including: aggregate (unpublished) trend projections in August 2006, detailed modal projections in August 2005—published in the commissioned report BTRE (2006a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections to 2020—and in July 2003, as an unpublished consultancy report (see BTRE 2003b, Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2020: Projected Trends for Australian Transport (Information Sheet 21), for a summary of this study’s results). These ‘bottom-up’ base case projections have been developed using detailed BITRE modelling of Australian vehicle fleets, estimates of likely trends in new vehicle fuel efficiency, long-term projections of national and state populations by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Treasury projections of long-term economic growth. See the Appendix tables for details of the projection parameters, and the following BITRE studies for descriptions of the various modelling approaches: BTCE (1991) Working Paper 2, BTCE (1995a) Report 88, BTCE (1995b) Working Paper 22, BTCE (1995c) Working Paper 24, BTCE (1996b) Report 92, BTCE (1996a) Report 94, BTCE (1997) Working Paper 35, BTE (1998) Working Paper 38, BTRE (2002b) Information Sheet 18, BTRE (2002a) Report 107, BTRE (2003d) Working Paper 51, BTRE (2006b) Report 112, BTRE (2007a) Working Paper 71, and two consultancy reports prepared for Environment Australia—BTE (1999a) and BTRE (2003c), Urban Pollutant Emissions From Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends To 2020. The specific base case scenario used for this study is based on assumed ‘business-asusual’ (BAU) trends, and adopts what is considered the most likely future movements in travel behaviour, vehicle technology, economic indicators and demography over the coming years, and also incorporates the likely impact of the various greenhouse gas abatement measures that Australian governments had already put in place by mid- 2007. Note that this particular base case specification does not include any possible effects due to the (yet to be introduced) Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. National vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), by all Australian vehicles, are projected to increase by around 1.7 per cent per annum between 2007 and 2020 (see Road section of Chapter 2 and the Appendix tables for details of the base case projections of Australian motor vehicle fleet activity), under the BAU assumptions. 1
BITRE | Working paper 73 The Base Case 2007 estimates of direct greenhouse gas emissions (CO 2 equivalent) from road transport are given, by vehicle type, in Table 1.1. Total road emissions from energy end use (excluding CO 2 emissions released from the combustion of biofuels) are projected to grow by about 21.6 per cent between 2007 and 2020 (around 1.5 per cent per annum), reaching a 2020 level of around 90.3 million tonnes of direct CO 2 equivalent (which is close to 65 per cent higher than the 1990 road total). Note that, for information, projections of road emissions are given by directly radiative gas emitted (i.e. for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) for each vehicle type in Appendix tables, along with modal projections of emissions for the major non-CO 2 indirectly radiative gas species. Total transport emissions to 2020 (direct CO 2 equivalent from energy end use) are presented by mode in Table 1.2, and the trends for the various direct gases are given in Tables 1.3 to 1.5. Relative to the 1990 base year, emissions from the Australian civil domestic transport sector are projected (under the base case assumptions) to increase 48.1 per cent by 2010, reaching 91.5 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent. By 2020, BITRE projects base case emissions to be close to 70.3 per cent above 1990 levels (at 105.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent). Referring to Table 1.2 and Figure 1.1, major points of note include: • total transport sector growth, in direct CO 2 equivalent emissions (2007–2020), is projected to be 22.6 per cent (around 1.58 per cent per annum, similar to the road sector growth in emissions of 1.55 per cent per annum) • aviation growth in direct CO 2 equivalent emissions (2007–2020) of 30 per cent (reaching a level of 214 per cent above the 1990 civil aviation total) • direct CO 2 equivalent emissions from non-electric rail transport increasing by around 2.5 per cent per annum (2007–2020); and maritime sector (coastal shipping, ferries and pleasure craft) emissions forecast to grow at around 1.2 per cent per annum (2007–2020). 2
Page 1 and 2: Greenhouse gas emissions from Austr
Page 3 and 4: ISSN 1440-9707 ISBN 978-1-921260-32
Page 6: At a glance • This paper presents
Page 9 and 10: Figures Figure ES1 Figure ES2 Figur
Page 11 and 12: Tables Table ES1 Table 1.1 Table 1.
Page 13 and 14: Table A9 Table A10 Table A11 Table
Page 16 and 17: Executive summary This report prese
Page 18 and 19: Executive summary that of Base Case
Page 20 and 21: Executive summary • the treatment
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary Table ES1 Emissio
Page 24 and 25: Executive summary Figure ES2 Compar
Page 28 and 29: Chapter 1 | Aggregate base case pro
Page 34 and 35: Chapter 2 Projections by transport
Page 36 and 37: Chapter 2 | Projections by transpor
Page 54: Chapter 2 | Projections by transpor
Page 57 and 58: BITRE | Working paper 73 price proj
Page 59 and 60: BITRE | Working paper 73 population
Page 61 and 62: BITRE | Working paper 73 the high p
Page 63 and 64: BITRE | Working paper 73 only on th
Page 65 and 66: BITRE | Working paper 73 The NGGI e
Page 67 and 68: BITRE | Working paper 73 The curren
Page 69 and 70: BITRE | Working paper 73 Table 3.1
Page 72 and 73: Chapter 4 Sensitivity analyses The
Page 74 and 75: Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Ta
Page 76 and 77:
Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Fi
Page 78 and 79:
Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Ta
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Page 84 and 85:
Page 86 and 87:
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Chapter 5 Projection and estimation
Page 92 and 93:
Chapter 5 | Projection and estimati
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116:
Page 119 and 120:
BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A2 C
Page 121 and 122:
BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A5 B
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A11
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 150 and 151:
References ABARE 2006, Energy Proje
Page 152 and 153:
References BTE 1999a, Analysis of t
Page 154 and 155:
References EIA 2006, Annual Energy
Page 156:
References Rypdal, Berntsen, Fugles
Page 159 and 160:
BITRE | Working paper 73 ACG 1997,
Page 161 and 162:
BITRE | Working paper 73 Hoekman, S
Page 164 and 165:
Abbreviations 4WD AAA ABARE ABS AGO
Page 166:
Abbreviations MVEm Motor Vehicle Em
show all

PDF: 9795 KB - Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?