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BITRE | Working paper 73
Table 4.1
Low GDP and population sensitivity: greenhouse gas emissions for
Australian transport, 1990–2020
Financial year Motor vehicles Rail (non-electric) Maritime Aviation Total
(gigagrams of direct CO 2
equivalent)
1990 54 790 1 733 2 387 2 833 61 743
1991 53 824 1 725 2 083 3 517 61 149
1992 54 557 1 676 2 142 3 817 62 191
1993 56 213 1 650 1 951 4 012 63 825
1994 57 696 1 783 1 817 4 245 65 538
1995 59 858 1 734 2 321 5 003 68 909
1996 61 266 1 687 2 445 5 491 70 874
1997 62 179 1 719 2 436 5 863 72 174
1998 63 336 1 747 2 135 5 318 72 504
1999 64 622 1 797 1 843 5 120 73 339
2000 65 928 1 863 1 926 5 352 75 003
2001 65 519 1 829 1 772 5 963 74 981
2002 67 449 1 914 1 792 5 347 76 367
2003 69 428 1 965 1 798 5 103 78 181
2004 71 970 2 109 1 923 5 337 81 295
2005 72 721 2 266 2 146 5 678 82 767
2006 72 878 2 338 2 085 6 303 83 506
2007 74 526 2 412 2 176 6 863 85 756
Forecasts
2008 75 589 2 532 2 240 7 054 87 118
2009 77 428 2 631 2 302 7 262 89 250
2010 78 853 2 721 2 370 7 471 90 966
2011 79 959 2 795 2 414 7 663 92 307
2012 80 863 2 837 2 419 7 805 93 326
2013 81 681 2 879 2 427 7 931 94 301
2014 82 492 2 933 2 440 8 044 95 275
2015 83 311 2 980 2 451 8 139 96 228
2016 84 020 3 021 2 460 8 210 97 051
2017 84 717 3 057 2 462 8 275 97 843
2018 85 359 3 089 2 460 8 336 98 570
2019 86 133 3 123 2 460 8 397 99 434
2020 86 772 3 159 2 462 8 458 100 155
Notes: The ‘low’ scenario assumes a decrease of 0.5 per cent per annum in the base case values for real Australian
GDP growth over the projection period, and a 0.1 per cent decrease in per annum population growth relative
to the base case.
‘Motor vehicles’ include all road vehicles plus off-road recreational vehicles. ‘Aviation’ includes emissions from
general aviation as well as airlines. ‘Maritime’ includes emissions from small pleasure craft and ferries as well
as coastal shipping.
Energy supply emissions are not included (i.e. rail does not include emissions from electricity generation).
Biomass derived emissions are also not included (i.e. CO 2
emissions from the combustion of biofuels are
excluded).
Emissions are direct greenhouse gas emissions only—carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (i.e. do
not include indirect effects of gases such as the ozone precursors carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide);
converted into CO 2
equivalent figures using AGO-preferred values for the Global Warming Potentials (of 21
for methane and 310 for nitrous oxide).
Sources: BTCE (1996a), BTRE (2007d, 2006a, 2003b, 2002a), VTPI (2007) and BITRE estimates.
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