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Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis
Table 4.10 High scenario—combined effects of sensitivity settings:
greenhouse gas emissions for Australian transport, 1990–2020
Financial year Motor vehicles Rail (non-electric) Maritime Aviation Total
(gigagrams of direct CO 2
equivalent)
1990 54 790 1 733 2 387 2 833 61 743
1991 53 824 1 725 2 083 3 517 61 149
1992 54 557 1 676 2 142 3 817 62 191
1993 56 213 1 650 1 951 4 012 63 825
1994 57 696 1 783 1 817 4 245 65 538
1995 59 858 1 734 2 321 5 003 68 909
1996 61 266 1 687 2 445 5 491 70 874
1997 62 179 1 719 2 436 5 863 72 174
1998 63 336 1 747 2 135 5 318 72 504
1999 64 622 1 797 1 843 5 120 73 339
2000 65 928 1 863 1 926 5 352 75 003
2001 65 519 1 829 1 772 5 963 74 981
2002 67 449 1 914 1 792 5 347 76 367
2003 69 428 1 965 1 798 5 103 78 181
2004 71 970 2 109 1 923 5 337 81 295
2005 72 721 2 266 2 146 5 678 82 767
2006 72 878 2 338 2 085 6 303 83 506
2007 74 871 2 423 2 182 6 895 86 151
Forecasts
2008 76 468 2 561 2 257 7 136 88 126
2009 79 252 2 691 2 338 7 433 91 341
2010 81 623 2 813 2 425 7 730 94 141
2011 84 050 2 931 2 495 8 045 96 996
2012 86 399 3 023 2 528 8 324 99 673
2013 88 739 3 116 2 567 8 593 102 392
2014 91 156 3 225 2 612 8 857 105 207
2015 93 697 3 332 2 658 9 114 108 136
2016 96 212 3 435 2 702 9 354 111 030
2017 98 834 3 537 2 742 9 597 114 028
2018 101 497 3 638 2 780 9 845 117 069
2019 104 378 3 745 2 822 10 100 120 345
2020 107 229 3 858 2 866 10 364 123 598
Notes: The ‘high’ scenario assumes the combination of all the previous sensitivity deviations that yields the highest
level of aggregate emissions.
‘Motor vehicles’ include all road vehicles plus off-road recreational vehicles. ‘Aviation’ includes emissions from
general aviation as well as airlines. ‘Maritime’ includes emissions from small pleasure craft and ferries as well
as coastal shipping.
Energy supply emissions are not included (i.e. rail does not include emissions from electricity generation).
Biomass derived emissions are also not included (i.e. CO 2
emissions from the combustion of biofuels are
excluded).
Emissions are direct greenhouse gas emissions only—carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (i.e. do
not include indirect effects of gases such as the ozone precursors carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide);
converted into CO 2
equivalent figures using AGO-preferred values for the Global Warming Potentials (of 21
for methane and 310 for nitrous oxide).
Sources: BTCE (1996a, 1996b, 1995a), BTRE (2006a, 2003a, 2003c, 2002a) and BITRE estimates.
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