PDF: 9795 KB - Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional ...

BITRE | Working paper 73
Figure ES1 Projections to 2020 of CO 2
equivalent emissions from Australian
civil domestic transport
140
120
Gigagrams CO 2
equivalent (thousand)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
High scenario Base Case 2007 Low scenario
Notes:
Sources:
Emissions relate to energy end use, and include only direct greenhouse gases. Emission estimates exclude
CO 2
released from the combustion of biofuels.
Gigagrams = 10 9 grams, equivalent to thousand tonnes.
The Base Case 2007 projections allow for the likely effects of Australian government policy measures (aimed
at abating greenhouse emissions from the transport sector) that have already been put in place.
The High Scenario projections consist of the highest level of emissions likely without major structural change
to the Australian transport sector (under a model sensitivity scenario that combines the effects from changes
to several major input settings).
The Low Scenario projections consist of the lowest level of emissions likely without major structural change
to the Australian transport sector (under a model sensitivity scenario that combines the effects from changes
to several major input settings).
BTCE (1996a, 1995a), BTRE (2006a, 2003a, 2003c, 2002a) and BITRE estimates.
The latter part of the report (see Chapter 5 for more details) derives rough orderof-magnitude
estimates for various components of the total transport greenhouse
contribution not covered by the values given in summary Table ES1 (i.e. Kyoto Protocol
‘accounting’ totals for direct CO 2
equivalent emissions from civil domestic energy
end use). In addition to the standard Base Case 2007 values (such as those plotted in
figure ES2), for directly radiative emissions released from vehicle fuel combustion,
Chapter 5 presents estimates that incorporate:
• indirectly radiative effects, such as due to ozone-forming emissions of gases
like carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide (where ozone is a powerful direct
greenhouse gas)
• the full fuel cycle (i.e. the inclusion of emissions released during transport fuel
supply and processing, and during power generation for electric railways)
• international transport (allocating half of the emissions due to total fuel use by
international shipping and aviation travelling to and from Australia)
• military transport fuel use
xxii