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Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis Table 4.10 High scenario—combined effects of sensitivity settings: greenhouse gas emissions for Australian transport, 1990–2020 Financial year Motor vehicles Rail (non-electric) Maritime Aviation Total (gigagrams of direct CO 2 equivalent) 1990 54 790 1 733 2 387 2 833 61 743 1991 53 824 1 725 2 083 3 517 61 149 1992 54 557 1 676 2 142 3 817 62 191 1993 56 213 1 650 1 951 4 012 63 825 1994 57 696 1 783 1 817 4 245 65 538 1995 59 858 1 734 2 321 5 003 68 909 1996 61 266 1 687 2 445 5 491 70 874 1997 62 179 1 719 2 436 5 863 72 174 1998 63 336 1 747 2 135 5 318 72 504 1999 64 622 1 797 1 843 5 120 73 339 2000 65 928 1 863 1 926 5 352 75 003 2001 65 519 1 829 1 772 5 963 74 981 2002 67 449 1 914 1 792 5 347 76 367 2003 69 428 1 965 1 798 5 103 78 181 2004 71 970 2 109 1 923 5 337 81 295 2005 72 721 2 266 2 146 5 678 82 767 2006 72 878 2 338 2 085 6 303 83 506 2007 74 871 2 423 2 182 6 895 86 151 Forecasts 2008 76 468 2 561 2 257 7 136 88 126 2009 79 252 2 691 2 338 7 433 91 341 2010 81 623 2 813 2 425 7 730 94 141 2011 84 050 2 931 2 495 8 045 96 996 2012 86 399 3 023 2 528 8 324 99 673 2013 88 739 3 116 2 567 8 593 102 392 2014 91 156 3 225 2 612 8 857 105 207 2015 93 697 3 332 2 658 9 114 108 136 2016 96 212 3 435 2 702 9 354 111 030 2017 98 834 3 537 2 742 9 597 114 028 2018 101 497 3 638 2 780 9 845 117 069 2019 104 378 3 745 2 822 10 100 120 345 2020 107 229 3 858 2 866 10 364 123 598 Notes: The ‘high’ scenario assumes the combination of all the previous sensitivity deviations that yields the highest level of aggregate emissions. ‘Motor vehicles’ include all road vehicles plus off-road recreational vehicles. ‘Aviation’ includes emissions from general aviation as well as airlines. ‘Maritime’ includes emissions from small pleasure craft and ferries as well as coastal shipping. Energy supply emissions are not included (i.e. rail does not include emissions from electricity generation). Biomass derived emissions are also not included (i.e. CO 2 emissions from the combustion of biofuels are excluded). Emissions are direct greenhouse gas emissions only—carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (i.e. do not include indirect effects of gases such as the ozone precursors carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide); converted into CO 2 equivalent figures using AGO-preferred values for the Global Warming Potentials (of 21 for methane and 310 for nitrous oxide). Sources: BTCE (1996a, 1996b, 1995a), BTRE (2006a, 2003a, 2003c, 2002a) and BITRE estimates. 63
BITRE | Working paper 73 Figure 4.6 High and low combination scenarios for total domestic transport emissions 140 Direct CO 2 equivalent emissions gigagrams (thousand) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 High scenario Base case Low scenario Sources: BTCE (1996a, 1996b, 1995a), BTRE (2006a, 2003a, 2003c, 2002a) and BITRE estimates. 64
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Greenhouse gas emissions from Austr
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ISSN 1440-9707 ISBN 978-1-921260-32
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At a glance • This paper presents
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Figures Figure ES1 Figure ES2 Figur
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Tables Table ES1 Table 1.1 Table 1.
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Table A9 Table A10 Table A11 Table
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Executive summary This report prese
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Executive summary that of Base Case
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Executive summary • the treatment
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Executive summary Table ES1 Emissio
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Executive summary Figure ES2 Compar
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Chapter 1 Aggregate base case proje
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Chapter 1 | Aggregate base case pro
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Chapter 2 Projections by transport
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Chapter 2 | Projections by transpor
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Table A23
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References ABARE 2006, Energy Proje
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References BTE 1999a, Analysis of t
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References EIA 2006, Annual Energy
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References Rypdal, Berntsen, Fugles
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BITRE | Working paper 73 ACG 1997,
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BITRE | Working paper 73 Hoekman, S
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Abbreviations 4WD AAA ABARE ABS AGO
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Abbreviations MVEm Motor Vehicle Em
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