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Chapter 4 | Sensitivity analysis
Table 4.7
Low fuel intensity sensitivity: greenhouse gas emissions for
Australian transport, 1990–2020
Financial year Motor vehicles Rail (non-electric) Maritime Aviation Total
(gigagrams of direct CO 2
equivalent)
1990 54 790 1 733 2 387 2 833 61 743
1991 53 824 1 725 2 083 3 517 61 149
1992 54 557 1 676 2 142 3 817 62 191
1993 56 213 1 650 1 951 4 012 63 825
1994 57 696 1 783 1 817 4 245 65 538
1995 59 858 1 734 2 321 5 003 68 909
1996 61 266 1 687 2 445 5 491 70 874
1997 62 179 1 719 2 436 5 863 72 174
1998 63 336 1 747 2 135 5 318 72 504
1999 64 622 1 797 1 843 5 120 73 339
2000 65 928 1 863 1 926 5 352 75 003
2001 65 519 1 829 1 772 5 963 74 981
2002 67 449 1 914 1 792 5 347 76 367
2003 69 428 1 965 1 798 5 103 78 181
2004 71 970 2 109 1 923 5 337 81 295
2005 72 721 2 266 2 146 5 678 82 767
2006 72 878 2 338 2 085 6 303 83 506
2007 74 408 2 406 2 171 6 848 85 613
Forecasts
2008 75 351 2 520 2 227 7 017 86 819
2009 77 119 2 614 2 284 7 215 88 862
2010 78 454 2 695 2 342 7 398 90 443
2011 79 527 2 756 2 373 7 558 91 693
2012 80 447 2 790 2 365 7 678 92 686
2013 81 264 2 823 2 361 7 780 93 614
2014 82 060 2 866 2 361 7 865 94 521
2015 82 849 2 902 2 358 7 935 95 395
2016 83 524 2 933 2 352 7 980 96 132
2017 84 171 2 956 2 338 8 016 96 817
2018 84 751 2 975 2 320 8 047 97 425
2019 85 423 2 995 2 302 8 075 98 121
2020 85 953 3 015 2 285 8 101 98 665
Notes: The ‘low’ scenario assumes approximately 10–15 per cent faster improvements (by 2020) in fleet fuel
efficiency trends than the base case.
‘Motor vehicles’ include all road vehicles plus off-road recreational vehicles. ‘Aviation’ includes emissions from
general aviation as well as airlines. ‘Maritime’ includes emissions from small pleasure craft and ferries as well
as coastal shipping.
Energy supply emissions are not included (i.e. rail does not include emissions from electricity generation).
Biomass derived emissions are also not included (i.e. CO 2
emissions from the combustion of biofuels are
excluded).
Emissions are direct greenhouse gas emissions only—carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (i.e. do
not include indirect effects of gases such as the ozone precursors carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide);
converted into CO 2
equivalent figures using AGO-preferred values for the Global Warming Potentials (of 21
for methane and 310 for nitrous oxide).
Sources: BTCE (1996a, 1995a), BTRE (2006a, 2003a, 2003c, 2002a) and BITRE estimates.
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