capability development plan - European Defence Agency - Europa

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STRATEGIC DRIVERS
INTRODUCTION
1. The future is fundamentally uncertain, yet there are discernable directions, even if signs point to
conflicting and multiple outcomes. For some, uncertainty justifies not thinking about the future, while
others see it as a source of opportunity. What is clear is that without a concerted effort to be future
focused, organisations run the risk of increased irrelevance – including the development of military
capabilities which do not reflect the changing nature of armed conflict.
2. Lead times in defence are such that capabilities we will or we will not have in 20 years time, must, in
practice, be determined by informed decisions in the near-term. But these decisions must not only draw
upon our past experiences and current thinking. Here we seek to inform these decisions.
3. The workshop tried to ensure that strategic drivers are analysed in comprehensive way. Therefore a
two dimensional approach was selected. Strategic Drivers and potential consequences for defence
were analysed both within each strategic driver and then across capability profile areas (command,
inform, engage, protect, deploy, sustain). The workshop confirmed that potential consequences for
defence overlap across capability profile areas. Due to the nature and close interdependencies of LTV
Strategic Drivers some overlap with trends and potential sources of conflict exist.
4. Key findings of the workshop are presented in this report. Potential consequences for defence are
presented across capability lines of development.
5. Key findings are presented with broad indication of likelihood of such development. These likelihood
indicators are emboldened in italics within the text. Three likelihood categories are used – will, likely
to and may. When will is used it is assessed that this development is going to happen. Likely to refers
to a probable development, which may vary due to changing circumstances or other driving factors.
May involves a number of unpredictable or unknown variables or policy change.
most severely affected and the least well placed to be able to respond to the effects of global warming.
They will need support from developed countries.
3. Climate change, in combination with demographic trends and pollution, will cause an ever
increasing imbalance between the requirement for, and the supply of, strategic resources. The
provision of the necessary food at the global scale may be endangered and therefore the exploitation
and pressure on resources of all kinds are likely to grow.
4. The political sensitivity and awareness for environment issues of the public opinion will further
increase and may become a means of exerting pressure against the non-compliant.
5. Industrialisation and urbanisation will become the main causes of degradation in the environment. In
the developing countries, pollution will strongly increase and give rise to water shortages, health
issues and problems with food supplies. The exploitation of resources and the less performing
standards of environmental legislation outside Europe are likely to increase pollution in potential future
theatres of ESDP operation.
ENVIRONMENT
MAJOR TRENDS
1. The global warming will continue over the next 20 years. Frequency and intensity of extreme
climatic events will continue to rise. There will be an increase in the number of hurricanes and
tornados and they are likely to be more violent. Global warming, accompanied by the melting of polar
ice, will lead to an increase in average sea levels.
2. Developing countries, especially densely populated and urban areas close to littoral, will be the
Salt land in Trombay - Mumbai © sxc.hu
FUTURE TRENDS FROM THE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN