capability development plan - European Defence Agency - Europa

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STRATEGIC DRIVERS
and religious diversity within all states, and will lead to a need for intensive and specialised training at
all levels. Language training and a familiarisation of local customs, sensitivities and traditions will
become essential in humanitarian and stabilisation operations where forces are likely to operate
amongst the people.
16. Operating within ungoverned space, whether in urban environments or not, will provide critical
challenges, such as countering child soldiers, which are likely to need to be addressed at the local
level and may have strategic impact upon the information operation and media campaigns. Training
will need to be comprehensive at all command levels.
17. Concepts - A comprehensive, civil-military approach will be required to address most strategic
challenges in ESDP throughout the timeframe. This will most likely only be achieved by developing the
necessary concepts involving all the appropriate actors and players, including the military, defence
policy staff, civilian authorities (judiciary, police, etc.) and non-governmental organisations. Full
interoperability will be the overarching aim.
18. Emergence of communicable diseases may require the military to work closely with local
authorities, NGOs and IOs beyond providing security.
19. The military will be required to provide and sustain stability in order for the ‘softer’ capabilities to
provide the required end-state. To this end the military will require maximum precision and maximum
flexibility, which may include both kinetic and, perhaps more likely, non-kinetic capabilities.
20. Equipment - An increase in operating amongst the people within an urban environment is likely to
provide an opportunity to utilise new technologies to support military operations, although the emphasis
will remain to provide a sufficient ground force presence to provide suitable security and deterrence.
21. Satisfying the need for greater selectivity and precision in ISR and target acquisition will require
novel approaches and techniques. However, such equipment is likely to be seen to complement an
increase in the need for military intelligence. The recognised operating picture within urban terrain will
be crucial to mission success and will require considerable coordination with civilian organisations.
22. Novel technological solutions may change the way operations are conducted. However, there will
be a need to ensure that a key planning assumption of any re-structuring plan is to be able to deploy
‘boots on the ground’ in any crisis management operation.
23. Access to theatre - The importance of being able to operate within the littoral and to ensure access
to it will remain vital in all types of future operations and for the delivery of joint and combined effects.
24. Manoeuvre is likely to remain a key objective to any military force. This challenge may need to be
addressed through a variety of ways and means appropriate to a highly populated urban operation or
one in a vast, semi-barren and ungoverned space.
ENERGY
MAJOR TRENDS
1. By 2025, the predicted global economic growth will result in a greater demand for energy. A sharp
competition for energy supplies amongst the primary consumers, in particular within the emerging
economies (e.g. China, India), is likely to escalate worldwide.
2. The growing competition for diminishing resources is likely to lead to rise in energy prices. At some
stage, this may severely slow down, or even stop development in less-dynamic states, in particular in
those who are deprived from possessing natural resources.
3. Primary consumers of fossil fuel will become increasingly dependent on external and distant
sources of supply. Strategic partnerships between consumer and producer states will be crucial and
will seek to guarantee supply. In some cases, guaranteed access to strategic resources may compel
consumer states to deal with unsound political regimes.
4. Despite foreseen regulative actions, consumption of carbon based fuels will contribute to global
warming increasing related environmental challenges for both developed and developing economies.
Fossil fuels will remain the major source for transport fuels.
5. Nuclear power plants will continue to be an attractive alternative. Alternative energy sources, as
well as exploitation of oil and gas fields located at areas of difficult access (e.g. polar region) will
become more cost effective. Shortage of oil & gas will expand the exploitation of other energy sources
(e.g. renewable energy).
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF CONFLICT, THREAT AND HUMANITARIAN TRAGEDY
6. In emerging economies where welfare and access to energy is likely to remain unevenly distributed
conflicts may materialise, internally or between competitors on emerging markets.
7. Players competing for the same markets and partners may become strategic rivals. Equally, they
may combine their efforts in order to exclude other interested parties from the area.
FUTURE TRENDS FROM THE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN