capability development plan - European Defence Agency - Europa

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STRATEGIC DRIVERS
3. The growing economic strength of the developing countries, in particular in Asia and South-America
(China, India and Brazil), will lead to an increase in the competition on resources with the developed
countries. The geographical areas, where resources such as gas, oil and minerals resources will be
drawn from, are likely to remain unstable regions.
4. Markets for goods, services and labour will continue to see a growth of internationalisation,
reinforcing the worldwide economical dependencies and integration. This will result in increasing
interdependencies, competition and economical linkages between economic regions which are
currently traditionally separated. Due to these interdependencies, the probability for large scale
traditional interstate warfare is likely to decline.
5. International criminality will cross national borders in a stronger way and will try to benefit from
inefficiency of interstate mechanisms founded to fight organised crime.
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF CONFLICT, THREAT AND HUMANITARIAN TRAGEDY
6. Economic instabilities will remain one of the main sources for conflicts. Although there will be an
increase in global wealth, the gap between the haves and the have nots, within each country is likely to
grow and is likely to provoke internal social crisis. In the densely populated, developing countries in
Asia, a massive growth in inequalities may create an eruption of social and political tensions, thus
endangering internal stability and social cohesion.
7. The standard of living in sub-Saharan Africa will decline. As a result migration from the sub-Saharan
African region is likely to increase as that area becomes more and more excluded from the benefits of
globalisation.
8. The competition for resources between developing countries and the developed countries will lead to
a growing relevance for security and access to the supply routes of energy and raw materials, in order
to sustain the economical growth.
9. As world economy becomes more tightly integrated the collapse of national economies is likely to
have percussions in the world overall economical system and therefore is likely to create tensions as
states try to react independently to domestic crisis and the wider effects of economic collapses.
10. Economical criminality is likely to present a challenge as it may support the financing of terrorism.
POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES FOR DEFENCE
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11. Concepts - Defence budgets will further decline due to weak economic growth or even in growing
economy as a result of growing competition of natural resources. States may not be able to sustain a
full range of capabilities by themselves. Possible opportunities for co-operation and specialisation will
have to be evaluated.
12. In order to gain more financial flexibility for defence budgets, core military tasks will have to be
identified and then possibilities, constraints and conditions for outsourcing will have to be identified and
evaluated.
13. Limited financial resources will influence doctrines and concepts. How to conduct operations may
have to be considered more innovative ways.
14. Armed forces may have to pay special attention to, and to participate in the securing economic
flows as well as supply routes. The aim would be to guarantee access to energy supplies and raw
materials despite the resources being located in unstable regions of the world.
FUTURE TRENDS FROM THE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN