capability development plan - European Defence Agency - Europa

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THREATS AND CHALLENGES DERIVING FROM
POTENTIAL ADVERSARIES
• Ex-Soviet high altitude interceptors maybe to upgraded to, for example MiG-31 ‘Foxhound’
interceptors in the E export configuration, in exchange for the older Foxbats. Such aircraft has beyond
visual range air-to-air missiles and phased array radar (facilitating the simultaneous engagement of up
to four targets, including those with aspects below and behind).
• Other contenders may include surplus MiG-29 or Su-27 variants. Should funding allow, then a newbuild
and customised Su-30 variant-type would be a likely contender to fill this role.
• Ex-US aircraft could be replaced by F-16 upgrades. An active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA)
radar would dramatically increase the target identification and engagement capability of the aircraft.
Specifically, an AESA system offers advantages in terms of simplicity of design, maintenance and
operation due to the lack of moving parts. Systems also offer a much faster scanning rate as they are
not restricted by the physical rotation of the system, a much higher range and larger number of targets
able to be tracked and engaged due to the possibility of multiple agile beams. Lastly, AESA systems
offer a lower probability of intercept and improved resistance to ECM measures due to the agility of the
beam emitted.
• Current air lift capability is nearly always both insufficient and nearing the end of its effective service
life. Such adversaries may select Antonov An-70 and/or An-74s to provide the capability required.
• There is potential for C-130J to be sourced as surplus from allied nations who have replaced them
C130 Hercules © EUFOR Tchad RCA
with next-generation lift aircraft currently under development such as the A400M.
• It is expected a primary area for system procurement is in its air defence assets, including modern
mobile air defence systems from Russia. Such systems are capable providing good, low-medium
altitude coverage as part of a wider air defence umbrella.
• Some adversaries will seek to obtain an advanced area high-altitude air-defence system. The most
desirable is, perhaps, a Russian fourth generation system, optimised to defeat a range of advanced
threats including ballistic and tactical missiles, low signature stealth aircraft, AWACs-type aircraft and
stand-off electronic warfare aircraft.
• It is expected that vehicle fleets will be upgraded around wheeled 8x8 hull design able to field variants
capable of fulfilling numerous roles. As more advanced nations using such a vehicle replace them with
network centric platforms then large numbers of surplus vehicles will become available on the market.
The addition of a remote weapon station or manned turret affording Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV)
capability. There would be growth potential into the area of linked data transfer systems associated
with the first stages of network centricity.
• It is likely to see some procurement is that of Mine-Protected Mobility Vehicles to provide high-mobility
units with suitable protection. Furthermore, such procurement would allow the opportunity to replace
existing mobility firepower assets operating in ATGW and air defence roles.
• There is some potential for substantially increase attack helicopter capability. Millimetre wave fire
control radar was designed to provide target acquisition and engagement of (predominantly) armoured
vehicles with missile fire whilst the parent aircraft remained behind cover.
• Heavy armour upgrade is likely. Systems and capability upgrades may be included in any such
programme include external command and control communication systems, a battle management
system with appropriate tactical displays, improved internal intercom systems, an under-armour
auxiliary power unit, improved crew compartment cooling and conditioning systems and an optronics
package including infra-red thermal commander’s sight.
• It is not expected to have made significant strides towards network centricity. However, there are
areas in which advancement is expected to be made. Firstly, the adoption of western doctrine may
bear fruit in the planning and execution of combined arms operations featuring armour, infantry and
airborne assets. This development will be assisted by advances in the basic command and control
process and procedures, including the first steps in sharing of data and communications systems
between platforms such as close support aircraft and armoured vehicles.
FUTURE TRENDS FROM THE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN