capability development plan - European Defence Agency - Europa

STRATEGIC DRIVERS
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POTENTIAL SOURCES OF CONFLICT, THREAT AND HUMANITARIAN TRAGEDY
6. Climate change, in combination with demographic trends and pollution, will contribute to future
food/water shortage which will consequently lead to increased migration and to contest of resources.
These tendencies will also lead to a higher frequency of humanitarian disasters and therefore are
likely to lead to an increased need for active intervention.
7. Climatic change will affect the availability of arable land, water and energy in the medium term.
Therefore greater tensions and disputes over the availability of resources are likely to rise. This
contest, in combination with migration, is likely to lead to tensions and stresses, even at the higher
end of armed conflicts.
8. Extreme climatic events will threaten oil extraction and refining infrastructures, for instance in the
Gulf of Mexico and the Persian Gulf. Major disruptions of oil extraction and refining activities are likely
to lead to a considerable rise in the cost of petroleum.
POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES FOR DEFENCE
9. Concepts – Increased need to conduct disaster relief and/or humanitarian assistance operations will
emphasize a need for a comprehensive approach (Civ–mil, inter-agency co-operation and coordination).
10. It is likely that availability of resources in future theatres would be limited (Host Nation Support). In
addition, there will be a competition for appropriate strategic transportation assets, also on the civilian
market. The availability of these assets, required for the transport of energy sources, food and water
over great distances, will gain strategic importance.
11. Medical healthcare will become increasingly important. This will include healthcare against
pollution and possible future hazards related to the increasing number of nuclear facilities at the global
level (need for additional CBRN protection, e.g. as well as physical security).
12. Environmental legislation will have to be taken into consideration when planning and conducting
ESDP operations. This may limit the freedom of action (use of weapons, transportation means etc.) of
EU forces and may include the necessity to foresee a “cleaning” of the theatre after the operation.
13. Training - Increased likelihood of disaster relief/humanitarian assistance operations will emphasize
need for appropriate training. Additionally, due to changes in the environment, the conditions in which
operations will be conducted, are likely to be more hostile than today. These conditions may include
pollution and emerging diseases, related to degradation of the environment.
14. Surveys of public opinion indicate that it is possible that armed forces’ resources are likely to be
used in missions involving environmental protection and pollution control, fishery protection and in
contributing to the national effort to safeguard the environment.
15. Equipment - Future operations will be conducted in more demanding climatic conditions. The
equipment of EU forces will need to be adapted to these conditions. This adaptation may include need
for improved dependability and need for “easy-care” solutions.
16. The military will have to adapt to the more demanding levels of environmental legislation. The
armed forces will be required to adhere to a process of control and planned development. The
development of military equipment and the training of forces are likely to reflect a need to reduce the
damage to the environment by military activities.
CULTURE & SOCIETY
MAJOR TRENDS
© EUFOR Tchad RCA
1. The ongoing globalisation will continue. Although that process will create many opportunities for
FUTURE TRENDS FROM THE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN