capability development plan - European Defence Agency - Europa

56
THREATS AND CHALLENGES DERIVING FROM
POTENTIAL ADVERSARIES
a. Their utilisation of modern solutions is likely to make it possible for the adversaries to gain
potentially devastating effects with limited effort.
b. Adversaries will have access to equipment and systems that enables them to operate at night with
night vision equipment and other nocturnal capabilities.
c. Adversaries will be able to use robotics and unmanned platforms, CBRNE weapons and devices,
ballistic missiles, thermo-baric weapons, rockets and mortars to threaten EU forces and local
population.
d. Adversaries will have increased access to electronic attack systems (EW, DEW) and thus, they will
conduct electronic warfare against individual equipment, active protection systems (e.g. DIRCM) and
C2 structure.
e. Adversaries will be able to conduct deep operations. Adversaries may use advanced target
acquisition systems and advanced stand-off capabilities and are likely to have access to greater
quantities of precision munitions.
44. Adversaries will try to choose an environment that minimises EU superiority of firepower and where
forces lacking adequate force protection (i.e. lack of fire power; reduced mobility; light armour) can be
confronted. They will avoid situations in which they compete with blue forces head-on.
45. Adversaries may try to engage EU forces with attacks performed from underground.
46. The current trends of using sophisticated IEDs, mines, autonomous systems, will continue. These
will range in sophistication from command-detonated, bottom-dwelling sea mines to acoustically
© EUFOR Tchad RCA
detonated, pressure-activated wooden landmines. The use of semi-active laser–guided rounds, fired
from single mortars or single guns or pairs of artillery systems will be used from concealed positions.
47. Adversaries will have access to novel littoral and blue water capabilities. This will increase threat
against all maritime assets.
48. Adversaries will try to use speed boats / intelligent mines / cheap small arms / civilian assets and
sophisticated land-based systems (UAVs, missiles, RPGs) and sea-based assets (UUVs, submarines,
torpedoes) to disrupt maritime operations, inc. replenishment and sustainment activities.
49. Adversaries will have access to modern smart mine technologies, which will create access
challenges to EU forces and may increase the burden of mine clearance in order to provide safe
passage within the littoral. New mines are likely to be used against LOCs and SPODs. Adversaries
may conduct disinformation about mine threat levels and could use virtual and false mines.
50. Adversaries’ ability to hide their activities among NGOs and local population will constrain EU
forces’ ability to conduct air-to-ground missions (collateral damage).
51. Adversaries may prioritise targeting MCM assets in order to deny freedom of movement.
52. Adversaries may try to get access to temporary storage and disposal of weapons and ammo in
order to cause collateral damage, which will reflect poorly on EU conduct. Conversely, they will have
access to cutting edge and untraditional concealment methods, thereby making the detection of
weapons and ammo more challenging.
PRINCIPLE OF INTERACTION AND REACTION
This considers the interplay between the conflict belligerents. Interaction is the activity that furthers the
achievement of the objectives. Although necessary, perhaps even essential at times, security and
protection, in itself, does not contribute to this aim. Exploiting opportunity to gain advantage is what all
sides need to do - albeit their tactics may differ massively. Reactive activity also tries to contribute to
the interaction by recapturing the initiative. Both are directly affected by the balance of knowledge and
ignorance.
Well informed forces dominate the tempo; they make use of all opportunities presented and avoid risk.
Less informed forces find themselves reacting to the operational rhythm, trying to create opportunities
based upon risky offensive actions. Again - a balance is required.
FUTURE TRENDS FROM THE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN