capability development plan - European Defence Agency - Europa

THREATS AND CHALLENGES DERIVING FROM
POTENTIAL ADVERSARIES
53. The integrated fight will be literally close, quick, and violent. Leaders will have minimal decisionmaking
time. Failure to recognise adversaries' intent and then act is likely to be fatal.
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54. Adversaries will have access to modern and sophisticated air defence systems including Surfaceto-Air
Missiles, Directed Energy Weapons (DEW), and electronic attack systems (EW, DEW).
Adversaries' increased access to electronic attack systems (EW, DEW) is likely to hamper, in
particular, the use of High Value Assets like AEW and AAR aircraft (e.g. jamming communication and
navigation systems).
55. EU forces’ SEAD capabilities may be challenged by adversaries' use of a broad spectrum of
combination of old and new and technologies (ad hoc hybrid solutions, dispersed command and
control).
56. Adversaries' predicted use of CBRN weapons and devices may require the EU force to operate in
contaminated areas for longer periods of time.
57. Due to enhanced mobility of adversary the area of operations is likely to be extended and thus
may augment the effort required for Force Protection.
58. Adversaries may be able to counter EU forces’ non lethal capabilities.
59. Adversary’s access to long range guided precision weapons will increase need for site defence
capabilities.
60. Adversary’s tactics in the urban environment will reduce the advantage in range and accuracy of
stand-off PGMs. In this form of close interaction, long-range, airborne-launched weapons would be of
limited use because of the proximity of friendly forces and the scarcity of significant targets. This is
likely to require attack helicopters or other aircraft to move in closer to strike with the associated risks.
61. Adversaries will have access to sophisticated AAM (Beyond Visual Range Missile) giving them the
ability to engage aircraft, which for example, will allow them to enter no fly zones to intercept support
aircraft such as AAR.
62. Adversaries’ access to ManPADS and other air defence systems will pose elevated threat to
helicopters and other low-level flying aircraft, incl. UAVs. It may even pose a significant threat to
medium and high level aircraft.
63. Adversaries may try to saturate air space management system with small targets. Increased use of
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UAVs will complicate airspace control and management. Identification of Friend or Foe will be more
challenging.
64. Adversaries will develop electronic warfare capabilities and cyber attack capabilities that are likely
to be used to deny EU forces’ ability to control airspace. Adversaries’ access to new technologies
(stealth etc.) will contribute to this.
65. The modern sophisticated logistics applications and technologies and increased number of
specialist contractors (civilians) within the EU forces will provide the adversaries with plenty of high
value targets. For example, pipelines, which are rather arduous to monitor and protect, may become
more attractive targets for adversaries.
66. There may be limited possibilities to get HNS due to potential infiltration and other actions of
terrorists and insurgents.
POTENTIAL CAPABILITY CHARACTERISTICS OF GENERIC REGULAR AND IRREGULAR
ADVERSARIES
For the sake of the CDP Strand B Workshops only, the EDA developed a system of classification of
capability in order to categorise potential adversaries using a wide range of factors. This is to provide a
generic assessment of the possible capabilities of differing potential adversaries by extrapolating data
based on the assessment of each. For ease of analysis each potential adversary is categorised as 1, 2,
or 3.
FUTURE TRENDS FROM THE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN