Final Technical Report - weADAPT

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5 Impacts and Vulnerability 5.1 Activities Conducted o Study of impact of climate change on hydrological regime in lower Mekong River region. o Study of impact of climate change on rain-fed rice productivity in lower Mekong River region. o Assessment on vulnerability and adaptation of rain-fed farmer in the lower Mekong River region to impact of climate change. 5.2 Study of impact of climate change on hydrological regime in lower Mekong River region 5.2.1 Description of Scientific Methods and Data This research focus the study of impact of climate change on hydrological regime on Mekong River’s tributaries in Lao PDR and Thailand by using climate data from the climate scenario, which was simulated by CCAM climate model, as input into Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to conduct high resolution hydrological simulation. The tributaries of Mekong River under this study are as follows: (also see Figure 19) • Lao PDR: Nam Ou, Nam Khan, Nam Nhiep, Nam Ngum, Nam Theun, Nam Kading, Se Bang Fai, Se Bang Hieng, Se Done and Se Kong • Thailand: Nam Songkram, Nam Chi and Nam Mun <strong>Final</strong> technical report – AIACC AS07 42
Figure 19: Selected Mekong River tributary watersheds for the study of climate change impact on hydrological regime Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) is a macro-scale hydrologic model that solves full water and energy balances, originally developed by Xu Liang at the University of Washington.(Liang, et al, 1994) It is a semi-distributed grid-based hydrological model that parameterizes the dominant hydro meteorological processes taking place at the land surface - atmosphere interface. A mosaic representation of land surface cover, and sub grid parameterizations for infiltration and the spatial variability of precipitation, account for sub-grid scale heterogeneities in key hydrological processes. The model uses two soil layers and a vegetation layer with energy and moisture fluxes exchanged between the layers.(Lohman, et al, 1998) Vegetation and soil characteristics associated with each grid cell are reflected in sets of vegetation and soil parameters. Parameters for vegetation types are specified in a user defined library of vegetation classes (usually derived from standard, national classification schemes), while their distribution over the gridded land surface area is specified in a vegetation parameter file. Soil characteristics (e.g., sand and clay percents, bulk density) can be represented for a user-defined number of vertical soil layers - usually two or three, divided into a thin upper layer and a secondary set of layers that extend several meters into the soil column. (Richey, et al, 2000) Data description and data source that were used for the simulation are as follows: • Forcing data: CCAM climate scenario data set at 0.1 degree resolution <strong>Final</strong> technical report – AIACC AS07 43
Page 1: Final Technical Report AIACC AS07 S
Page 4 and 5: Part 2: Details Report Page 3 Intro
Page 7 and 8: Part 1: Project Information and bri
Page 9 and 10: 5. Attachai Jintrawet, Multiple Cro
Page 11 and 12: 2 Executive Summary 2.1 Research pr
Page 13 and 14: processes taking place at the land
Page 15 and 16: set of climate scenario will be wit
Page 17 and 18: 2.3.2 Impact of climate change on h
Page 19 and 20: From the mathematic model simulatio
Page 21 and 22: also coupled with influence of clim
Page 23 and 24: sensitive to climate and helps to i
Page 25 and 26: than its first generation, yet expe
Page 27 and 28: Part 2: Details Report 3 Introducti
Page 29 and 30: forcing. It also addresses both cli
Page 31 and 32: Observed rainfall data from 23 mete
Page 33 and 34: Figure 13: Future temperature in th
Page 35 and 36: 10-year Averaged Minimum Temperatur
Page 37 and 38: will expand by 3-4 weeks throughout
Page 39 and 40: 4.3.2 Change in future precipitatio
Page 41: and wet years will be wider in the
Page 45 and 46: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Stat
Page 47 and 48: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Stat
Page 49 and 50: The illustrations below show the su
Page 51 and 52: climate data from climate scenario,
Page 53 and 54: The result from the simulation is s
Page 55 and 56: Figure 26: Framework on the assessm
Page 57 and 58: which fall in the period May to Oct
Page 59 and 60: Background of study site in Lao PDR
Page 61 and 62: • Dependency on on-farm productio
Page 63 and 64: interview would be analyzed accordi
Page 65 and 66: Climate Risk Group - Baseline condi
Page 67 and 68: ely on income from rice production
Page 69 and 70: Vulnerable group: Climate consition
Page 71 and 72: Vulnerable group: Climate condition
Page 73 and 74: The focus on the understanding abou
Page 75 and 76: 6.1 Activities Conducted: Assessmen
Page 77: • Potential measures and strategi
Page 80 and 81: Maintain appropriate farming condit
Page 82 and 83: Table 14: Community Level Measures
Page 84 and 85: other water diversion infrastructur
Page 86 and 87: 2005). The forecasts are used for s
Page 88 and 89: ice variety for their own consumpti
Page 90 and 91: change in cooperation with the nati
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At all of the study sites, farmers
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The adaptation strategy tends to li
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institutions with vitality and high
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In addition to the researchers and
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9 Outputs of the project This regio
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Thailand o The study on vulnerabili
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Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood
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Figure 18: Average annual rainfall
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Table 15: National Level Measures f
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80 Vientiane Rainfall (milimeter) 6
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80 Cantho Rainfall (milimeter) 60 4
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Sub-Basin: Station: Nam Ou - Lao PD
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Sub-Basin: Station: Nam Ngum - Lao
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Sub-Basin: Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR Stat
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Sub-Basin: Nam Songkhram - Thailand
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Sub-Basin: Se Bang Hieng - Lao PDR
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Sub-Basin: Nam Mun - Thailand Stati
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Sub-Basin: Se Kong - Lao PDR Statio
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Sub-Basin: Nam Ou - Lao PDR Station
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Sub-Basin: Upper Nam Ngum - Lao PDR
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Sub-Basin: Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR Stat
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Sub-Basin: Se Bang Fai - Lao PDR St
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Sub-Basin: Se Done - Lao PDR Statio
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Sub-Basin: Se Son - Lao PDR Station
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Sub-Basin: Nam Songkhram - Thailand
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Sub-Basin: Nam Mun - Thailand Stati
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