Final Technical Report - weADAPT

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5.2.2 Results: Impact of climate change on discharge of Mekong River’s tributaries in Lao PDR and Thailand After the VIC hydrological model had been calibrated, the future climate data from climate scenario, which was simulated from CCAM climate model, was used as input to simulate future tributary’s run-off under influence of climate change. As CCAM climate model generates 10 years climate data at each atmospheric CO 2 concentration condition (360ppm, 540ppm and 720ppm), climate data from the wettest year and driest year of the decade were used in the hydrological simulation, in order to understand the range of change in future hydrological condition in these watersheds. The VIC model runs one grid cell at a time over a desired period (any subset of the period spanned by the model forcing data), to produce time series of runoff, base flow, evaporation, and other physical variables for each grid cell. These time series are then routed by the VIC routing model to produce stream flow at points of interest in the watershed. The simulation of tributary discharge was based on the calculation of run-off at the river mouth before it flows into Mekong River main stem. The locations of the routing are as per Figure 21 below: (For the result of simulation of each sub-basin, see Appendix 3: Simulation Result of Hydrological Regime of major Sub-basins of Mekong River in Lao PDR and Thailand under Different Climate Scenarios). <strong>Final</strong> technical report – AIACC AS07 46
Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Station: Nam Ou - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N20.05 E102.24) Nam Khan - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N19.87 E102.18) Upper Nam Ngum - Lao PDR Before dam entry (N18.75 E102.77) Nam Ngum - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N18.16 E103.07) Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N18.41 E103.59) Nam Theun - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N18.33 E104.01) Se Bang Fai - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N16.98 E104.83) Se Bang Hieng - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N16.19 E105.32) Se Done - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N15.26 E105.84) Se Kong - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N13.67 E106.13) Se Son - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N13.58 E106.30) Se Pok - Lao PDR Tributary mouth (N13.50 E106.30) Nam Songkhram - Thailand Tributary mouth (N17.68 E104.35) Nam Chi - Thailand Tributary mouth (N15.26 E104.66) Nam Mun - Thailand Tributary mouth (N15.26 E105.45) Figure 21: Routing locations for analysis of climate change impact on hydrological regime of the Mekong River’s tributaries <strong>Final</strong> technical report – AIACC AS07 47
Page 1: Final Technical Report AIACC AS07 S
Page 4 and 5: Part 2: Details Report Page 3 Intro
Page 7 and 8: Part 1: Project Information and bri
Page 9 and 10: 5. Attachai Jintrawet, Multiple Cro
Page 11 and 12: 2 Executive Summary 2.1 Research pr
Page 13 and 14: processes taking place at the land
Page 15 and 16: set of climate scenario will be wit
Page 17 and 18: 2.3.2 Impact of climate change on h
Page 19 and 20: From the mathematic model simulatio
Page 21 and 22: also coupled with influence of clim
Page 23 and 24: sensitive to climate and helps to i
Page 25 and 26: than its first generation, yet expe
Page 27 and 28: Part 2: Details Report 3 Introducti
Page 29 and 30: forcing. It also addresses both cli
Page 31 and 32: Observed rainfall data from 23 mete
Page 33 and 34: Figure 13: Future temperature in th
Page 35 and 36: 10-year Averaged Minimum Temperatur
Page 37 and 38: will expand by 3-4 weeks throughout
Page 39 and 40: 4.3.2 Change in future precipitatio
Page 41 and 42: and wet years will be wider in the
Page 43 and 44: Figure 19: Selected Mekong River tr
Page 45: Sub-Basin: Station: Sub-Basin: Stat
Page 49 and 50: The illustrations below show the su
Page 51 and 52: climate data from climate scenario,
Page 53 and 54: The result from the simulation is s
Page 55 and 56: Figure 26: Framework on the assessm
Page 57 and 58: which fall in the period May to Oct
Page 59 and 60: Background of study site in Lao PDR
Page 61 and 62: • Dependency on on-farm productio
Page 63 and 64: interview would be analyzed accordi
Page 65 and 66: Climate Risk Group - Baseline condi
Page 67 and 68: ely on income from rice production
Page 69 and 70: Vulnerable group: Climate consition
Page 71 and 72: Vulnerable group: Climate condition
Page 73 and 74: The focus on the understanding abou
Page 75 and 76: 6.1 Activities Conducted: Assessmen
Page 77: • Potential measures and strategi
Page 80 and 81: Maintain appropriate farming condit
Page 82 and 83: Table 14: Community Level Measures
Page 84 and 85: other water diversion infrastructur
Page 86 and 87: 2005). The forecasts are used for s
Page 88 and 89: ice variety for their own consumpti
Page 90 and 91: change in cooperation with the nati
Page 92 and 93: At all of the study sites, farmers
Page 94 and 95: The adaptation strategy tends to li
Page 96 and 97:
institutions with vitality and high
Page 98 and 99:
In addition to the researchers and
Page 100 and 101:
9 Outputs of the project This regio
Page 102 and 103:
Thailand o The study on vulnerabili
Page 104 and 105:
Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood
Page 106 and 107:
Figure 18: Average annual rainfall
Page 108 and 109:
Table 15: National Level Measures f
Page 110 and 111:
80 Vientiane Rainfall (milimeter) 6
Page 112 and 113:
80 Cantho Rainfall (milimeter) 60 4
Page 114 and 115:
Sub-Basin: Station: Nam Ou - Lao PD
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Sub-Basin: Station: Nam Ngum - Lao
Page 118 and 119:
Sub-Basin: Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR Stat
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Sub-Basin: Nam Songkhram - Thailand
Page 122 and 123:
Sub-Basin: Se Bang Hieng - Lao PDR
Page 124 and 125:
Sub-Basin: Nam Mun - Thailand Stati
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Sub-Basin: Se Kong - Lao PDR Statio
Page 128 and 129:
Sub-Basin: Nam Ou - Lao PDR Station
Page 130 and 131:
Sub-Basin: Upper Nam Ngum - Lao PDR
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Sub-Basin: Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR Stat
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Sub-Basin: Se Bang Fai - Lao PDR St
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Sub-Basin: Se Done - Lao PDR Statio
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Sub-Basin: Se Son - Lao PDR Station
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Sub-Basin: Nam Songkhram - Thailand
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Sub-Basin: Nam Mun - Thailand Stati
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Final Technical Report - weADAPT

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