Final Technical Report - weADAPT

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studies on the subject in this region, there still are many gaps in the process that need to be further improved for the future study activity. First of all, this study did not cover other non-climate stresses particularly the changes in socio-economic condition, which may have influence on farmer’s livelihood. The future socio-economic condition, e.g. cost of living, inflation, market structure and market condition, national and regional development policy, etc., could be greatly differ from current situation, especially in the timescale of climate change study. These non-climate factors are important drivers that may have significant influence on the future vulnerability and risk of any social group in the society to climate change impact. Therefore, appropriate socio-economic change scenarios should be developed and also be used in the risk analysis along with the climate change impact scenarios. In addition, single proxy of climate stress as used in the analysis of risk and vulnerability to climate change may be insufficient. Secondly, this study also did not cover the analysis on the threshold of farmer’s tolerance to climate impact, particularly in the categorizing of the risk groups. In addition, the accumulative impact to the household livelihood in the case of multi-year or consecutive year occurrence of extreme climate event should also be taken under consideration. The issue of accumulated risk and vulnerability condition may be a serious matter, especially in the case of farmer in Thailand, whose coping capacity is low with limited resource to buffer the serious climate impact on their on-farm productivity until the next cropping season. In addition, most of the households also have debt, which in many cases the debt is even higher than the annual income. The impact from multi-year climate threat, especially the extreme climate event that may occur in consecutive years, may drive them into very serious difficult economic condition. The vulnerability of farmer may accumulate over the threshold; they not be able to repay their debt and end up in losing their most important production resource, which is their farmland, and finally be forced to change their way of life or social status from being independent farmer to be hired farm labor or permanently move away from the sector to work in other economic sector. Future study may include the annual household cash flow analysis over period of time under different scenarios in order to understand household financial condition which is the result of multi-year climate stress. <strong>Final</strong> technical report – AIACC AS07 72
The focus on the understanding about vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of farmer in the lower Mekong region may need to be set on impact of climate variability over number of years, particularly the case of extreme climate anomaly that may increase in its frequency and magnitude in the future as result of climate change, especially in the case of serious extreme climate in consecutive years. This may help in the better understanding of how vulnerability could be accumulated and how farmer would be vulnerable to climate change. <strong>Final</strong> technical report – AIACC AS07 73
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Final Technical Report AIACC AS07 S
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Part 2: Details Report Page 3 Intro
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Part 1: Project Information and bri
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5. Attachai Jintrawet, Multiple Cro
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2 Executive Summary 2.1 Research pr
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processes taking place at the land
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set of climate scenario will be wit
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2.3.2 Impact of climate change on h
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From the mathematic model simulatio
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Page 25 and 26: than its first generation, yet expe
Page 27 and 28: Part 2: Details Report 3 Introducti
Page 29 and 30: forcing. It also addresses both cli
Page 31 and 32: Observed rainfall data from 23 mete
Page 33 and 34: Figure 13: Future temperature in th
Page 35 and 36: 10-year Averaged Minimum Temperatur
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Page 39 and 40: 4.3.2 Change in future precipitatio
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Page 43 and 44: Figure 19: Selected Mekong River tr
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Page 49 and 50: The illustrations below show the su
Page 51 and 52: climate data from climate scenario,
Page 53 and 54: The result from the simulation is s
Page 55 and 56: Figure 26: Framework on the assessm
Page 57 and 58: which fall in the period May to Oct
Page 59 and 60: Background of study site in Lao PDR
Page 61 and 62: • Dependency on on-farm productio
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Page 71: Vulnerable group: Climate condition
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Page 82 and 83: Table 14: Community Level Measures
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Page 92 and 93: At all of the study sites, farmers
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Page 120 and 121: Sub-Basin: Nam Songkhram - Thailand
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Sub-Basin: Se Bang Hieng - Lao PDR
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Sub-Basin: Nam Mun - Thailand Stati
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Sub-Basin: Se Kong - Lao PDR Statio
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Sub-Basin: Nam Ou - Lao PDR Station
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Sub-Basin: Upper Nam Ngum - Lao PDR
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Sub-Basin: Nam Nhiep - Lao PDR Stat
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Sub-Basin: Se Bang Fai - Lao PDR St
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Sub-Basin: Se Done - Lao PDR Statio
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Sub-Basin: Se Son - Lao PDR Station
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Sub-Basin: Nam Songkhram - Thailand
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Sub-Basin: Nam Mun - Thailand Stati
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