Republic of Montenegro: Public Expenditure and ... - Vlada Crne Gore

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Chapter 2: Composition of Public Expenditure and
Key Sources of Fiscal Pressure
generally do better in larger classes. 40 The recent assessment shows that performances in math
and mother tongue increase as class size increases. For example, the correlation between math
performance and class size increases from 0.40 to 0.58 as the class size grows from under 5
students to above 25 students. This finding, although contrary to the usual expectation of policy
makers, is consistent with a large body of international research which shows that, within a wide
range of class size, achievement does not significantly differ. Second, students in satellite
schools generally do considerably worse than students in associated mother schools. Taken
together, these two findings imply that average performance would not decline (and may even
rise) if small classes and satellite schools were closed and pupils were taught in larger classes
and schools. This outcome would be reinforced if some of the savings from the closed schools
were invested in improving the quality of the remaining schools in the network.
Reforming Secondary Vocational Education
2.49 Reforming vocational education is another potential source of savings. Vocational
education programs in Montenegro have a poor record of providing the skills and knowledge
needed for labor market entry. They also provide less opportunity for entry to further education.
A study of secondary education students who graduated in 2004 looked at what they were doing
one year later 41 . The study found that young people’s prospects depend very greatly on the type
of secondary program they attended, with those attending four year programs overwhelmingly
better off – either because they were able to attend further schooling (usually a public university)
or find employment (Table 2.12). Currently, approximately two-thirds of students are enrolled in
various vocational programs.
Table 2.12. Outcomes for Students Leaving Secondary Education in 2004 by Type and by
Length of Secondary Program
Status Type of secondary program Length of
secondary
program
Gymnasium Secondary Secondary Crafts Field of 3 years 4 years
vocational technical program service
Continued
91 57 53 6 35 7 73
schooling
Unemployed 7 24 30 80 50 77 18
Employed 2 18 12 14 14 15 9
Other 1 3 1
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: Strategic Marketing Research, Survey of Secondary School Completers, manuscript, May-July 2005.
2.50 While the three-year programs are specifically intended for those who will enter the
labor market immediately after graduation, they fail in this mission. This represents,
therefore, a waste of public resources as these programs are predominately funded by the budget.
Those who entered the labor market directly after graduating from secondary school, rather than
40 It has not been possible to conduct a more detailed analysis to exclude the possibility that this outcome is the
result of other factors than simply class size. For example, it may be that larger classes are in urban areas and this is
where the better teachers are.
41 Strategic Marketing Research, ‘Survey of Secondary School Completers’, May-July 2005, manuscript.