Proceedings - C-SRNWP Project

Dust forecasting
The aim of the Dust and Biomass burning Experiment (DABEX) was to investigate the
physical, optical, and radiative properties of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols. This
allows a better representation of mineral dust and biomass burning events in Met Office
models.
In situ validation measurements can be compared against the output from these models.
Meanwhile the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean experiment (DODO) was a specific
measurement campaign funded by the university sector with Met Office collaboration
A limited area model over the Sahara was run twice daily in real time to provide prototype
dust forecasts to the research aircraft during the DABEX and DODO flight campaigns. Raw
model dust output is in Mass Mixing ratios of dust (kg/kg) for each particle size bin (currently
6) on each model level.
An automated post processing system supplied forecast charts to the aircraft giving total dust
concentrations (g/m³) at the surface, between 2000-5000ft and 5000-10000ft. Subjectively,
the model forecasts compare qualitatively well with large dust events (Figure 14). Future dust
amounts and particle size are reliant on significant model evaluation, validation and tuning.
Figure 14: Dust concentration at the Surface (bottom left panel) and 2000ft:5000ft (bottom
right panel) at 00Z on 08/03/2006.
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