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Ch. Frei, MeteoSwiss The verifying COSMO LEPS and ECMWF EPS forecasts are next shown: The correspondence between the observation and the COSMO LEPS probabilities is astonishingly good. The lower resolution EPS not only is unable to generate the right quantities but also places the maximum activity at a wrong place. Multimodel ensemble and the 2006 Olympic games in Torino (Cane, Milelli) In November 2005 ARPA Piemonte signed an agreement with MeteoSwiss and DWD for the operational use of the meteorological models LM-aLMo and LM-E during the Winter Olympic Games of Torino 2006. The data have been used for the forecast of some parameters with the Multi-Model Super-Ensemble technique. The theoretical bases of the system are described in the following papers 1) Krishnamurti T.N. et al.: Multi-model Super-Ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate, J. Climate 13, 4196-4216, 2000. 2) Cane D. and Milelli M.: Weather forecasts obtained with a Multi-Model Super-Ensemble technique in a complex orography region. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 15, No. 2, 207- 214, 2006 288
The used models are LAMI (Italy), aLMo (MeteoSwiss) and LME (DWD). The dynamical training period for the coefficients is 90 days. The system has been used for wind intensity, 2m temperature and relative humidity. Temperature: 700 m < h < 1500 m 8 7 6 RMSE (°C) 5 4 3 SuperEns lam00 lme00 alm00 2 1 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 forecast time (h) The single models all show significant errors with a strong diurnal cycle. The use of the super ensemble is able not only to reduce the errors by being better than each of the single models, but also is able to erase the diurnal cycle of errors. 289
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NEWSLETTER of the 28 th EWGLAM and
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Newsletter of the 28th EWGLAM and 1
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6.2 P. Clark et al.: The Convective
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1.1 Foreword In 2006, MeteoSwiss ha
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Cornel Soci National Meteorological
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16:15 - 16:45 Filip Vana general Dy
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2 Consortia and ECMWF reports 12
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Research Progress at ECMWF 2005-200
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ocean data assimilation system for
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Physical Aspects 1) The introductio
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either with a 1-dimensional observa
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2.2 ALADIN 22
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Another important event happened, i
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• However inspection of T2m forec
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Figure 4: One case of intercomparis
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The COSMO Consortium in 2005-2006 T
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2. Model system overview The key fe
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Data Assimilation for LM Method: Nu
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2. LM performance known, critically
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expected to result in an improved r
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Schrodin, R. and H. Heise, 2002: Th
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HIRLAM-A activities in 2006 Jeanett
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addition, research on the construct
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HIRLAM Reference System development
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Fig. 2: Case study for 10 June 2006
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Unified Model Developments 2006 Met
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Figure 4: Noise in increments from
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Cycle Date Model change and impact
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1.5km On-demand model Figure 8: 1.5
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3.1 Belgium 59
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• A prognostic mass-flux scheme f
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Perspectives The integrated package
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3.2 Croatia 65
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New computer Core of the new comput
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3.3 Czech Republic 69
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LAM efforts at Estonian Meteorologi
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grid is 186x170 points in horizonta
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McDonald, A., and J. E. Haugen, 199
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Operational NWP Activities at the F
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Model Forecast model Limited area g
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3.7 France 87
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Fig.1. The ALADIN-France domain, wi
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Towards AROME, A first try of a Rap
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Status Report of the Deutscher Wett
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In August 2006 production with the
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3.9 Hungary 97
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• LBC coupling at every 3 hours O
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IFS as driving model for ALADIN. Th
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3.10 Ireland 103
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Filtering: Fourth order implicit ho
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The next chart shows wind arrows at
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Italian Meteorological Service Stat
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Fig.3 Integration domain for LM- EU
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3.12 Netherlands 113
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esults with fixed entrainment and d
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simulation. In order to allow a goo
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layer for three contrasting nights
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21 UTC). The severe thunderstorm fo
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Limited Area Modelling Activities a
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(a) Figure 2 ALADIN/Portugal geogra
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een locally implemented as an optim
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LAM ACTIVITIES IN ROMANIA Cornel SO
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Fig.3 HRM domain, 78 cumulated prec
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- Experiments : variation of the fr
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NWP activities at Slovak Hydrometeo
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Operational suite upgrades • 23/0
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3.16 Slovenia 139
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First experiments with new physical
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• resolution of meteorological fi
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NWP activities in INM Bartolomé Or
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1 System definition • Creation of
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MSLP June-August 2006 Geopotential
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NATIONAL STATUS REPORT on Operation
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Model input The observations used f
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Numerical Weather Prediction at Met
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The setup is based on a new numeric
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weight of importance in the voting
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4.1 F. Vana: Dynamics & Coupling, A
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5 Scientific presentations on data
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COSMO: Overview and Strategy on Dat
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Meteorology in Hamburg (MPI-M). The
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temperature forecasts, this had a s
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5.2 D. Leuenberger et al.: The Late
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scaling factor α and of the latent
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a) b) RAD 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 det
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5.3 C. Fischer and A. Horanyi: Alad
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Figure 1: analysis increments of wi
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3) Averaged emissivities + dynamica
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In parallel, a direct radar observa
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►Algorithms: • FGAT (with Hunga
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Data assimilation activities in LAC
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Fig.3 RMSE difference (WDEF-NAM2).
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6 Scientific presentations on physi
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Physics improvements in the NAE mod
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The top panel in figure 3 shows tha
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The Murk aerosol is based on the ur
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Relaxation term Due to these proble
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Figure 12: SOx emissions in 1990 an
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Buncefield oil depot fire Figure 15
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6.2 P. Clark et al.: The Convective
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y the model (e.g. streaks of gradua
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the Met Office Large Eddy Model (LE
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Figure 4 Domains used in high resol
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1.0 95th percentile threshold Fract
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Figure 10 Surface precipitation rat
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HIRLAM Physics developments Sander
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strong winds. This causes a too lar
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Page 251 and 252: ALARO-0 Physics developments at LAC
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Page 255 and 256: 2.1 Pseudo prognostic turbulent kin
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Page 259 and 260: 7 Scientific presentations on predi
Page 261 and 262: LAMEPS Development of ALADIN-LACE Y
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Page 265 and 266: uncertainty in the model physics, t
Page 267 and 268: In Budapest, dynamical downscaling
Page 269 and 270: 7.2 J. García-Moya et al.: Recent
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Page 273 and 274: Palmer, T.N., Alessandri, A., Ander
Page 275 and 276: Figure 4 Example of probability map
Page 277 and 278: More than 15 mm/6 hours Figure 6 Re
Page 279 and 280: 7.3 C. Marsigli et al.: The COSMO S
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Page 287 and 288: Overview COSMO ensemble systems Pie
Page 289: COSMO-LEPS 16-MEMBER EPS An objecti
Page 293 and 294: 28th EWGLAM Meeting 9-11 October 20
Page 295 and 296: 9 SRNWP business meeting report 293
Page 297 and 298: Minutes of the Meeting Participatio
Page 299 and 300: Training and Education Activities i
Page 301 and 302: These reports were very divers, fro
Page 303: Contacts with the Academia In his d
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