Proceedings - C-SRNWP Project

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Ch. Frei, MeteoSwiss The verifying COSMO LEPS and ECMWF EPS forecasts are next shown: The correspondence between the observation and the COSMO LEPS probabilities is astonishingly good. The lower resolution EPS not only is unable to generate the right quantities but also places the maximum activity at a wrong place. Multimodel ensemble and the 2006 Olympic games in Torino (Cane, Milelli) In November 2005 ARPA Piemonte signed an agreement with MeteoSwiss and DWD for the operational use of the meteorological models LM-aLMo and LM-E during the Winter Olympic Games of Torino 2006. The data have been used for the forecast of some parameters with the Multi-Model Super-Ensemble technique. The theoretical bases of the system are described in the following papers 1) Krishnamurti T.N. et al.: Multi-model Super-Ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate, J. Climate 13, 4196-4216, 2000. 2) Cane D. and Milelli M.: Weather forecasts obtained with a Multi-Model Super-Ensemble technique in a complex orography region. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 15, No. 2, 207- 214, 2006 288
The used models are LAMI (Italy), aLMo (MeteoSwiss) and LME (DWD). The dynamical training period for the coefficients is 90 days. The system has been used for wind intensity, 2m temperature and relative humidity. Temperature: 700 m < h < 1500 m 8 7 6 RMSE (°C) 5 4 3 SuperEns lam00 lme00 alm00 2 1 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 forecast time (h) The single models all show significant errors with a strong diurnal cycle. The use of the super ensemble is able not only to reduce the errors by being better than each of the single models, but also is able to erase the diurnal cycle of errors. 289
Page 1:
NEWSLETTER of the 28 th EWGLAM and
Page 4 and 5:
Newsletter of the 28th EWGLAM and 1
Page 6 and 7:
6.2 P. Clark et al.: The Convective
Page 8 and 9:
1.1 Foreword In 2006, MeteoSwiss ha
Page 10 and 11:
Cornel Soci National Meteorological
Page 12 and 13:
16:15 - 16:45 Filip Vana general Dy
Page 14 and 15:
2 Consortia and ECMWF reports 12
Page 16 and 17:
Research Progress at ECMWF 2005-200
Page 18 and 19:
ocean data assimilation system for
Page 20 and 21:
Physical Aspects 1) The introductio
Page 22 and 23:
either with a 1-dimensional observa
Page 24 and 25:
2.2 ALADIN 22
Page 26 and 27:
Another important event happened, i
Page 28 and 29:
• However inspection of T2m forec
Page 31 and 32:
Figure 4: One case of intercomparis
Page 33 and 34:
The COSMO Consortium in 2005-2006 T
Page 35 and 36:
2. Model system overview The key fe
Page 37 and 38:
Data Assimilation for LM Method: Nu
Page 39 and 40:
2. LM performance known, critically
Page 41 and 42:
expected to result in an improved r
Page 43 and 44:
Schrodin, R. and H. Heise, 2002: Th
Page 45 and 46:
HIRLAM-A activities in 2006 Jeanett
Page 47 and 48:
addition, research on the construct
Page 49 and 50:
HIRLAM Reference System development
Page 51 and 52:
Fig. 2: Case study for 10 June 2006
Page 53 and 54:
Unified Model Developments 2006 Met
Page 55 and 56:
Figure 4: Noise in increments from
Page 57 and 58:
Cycle Date Model change and impact
Page 59 and 60:
1.5km On-demand model Figure 8: 1.5
Page 61 and 62:
3.1 Belgium 59
Page 63 and 64:
• A prognostic mass-flux scheme f
Page 65 and 66:
Perspectives The integrated package
Page 67 and 68:
3.2 Croatia 65
Page 69 and 70:
New computer Core of the new comput
Page 71 and 72:
3.3 Czech Republic 69
Page 73 and 74:
¾¿ Ø Ó ÂÒÙÖÝ ¾¼¼ ËÛØ
Page 75 and 76:
ÏÄÅ ÊÔÓÖØ ¾¼¼ ÖÓÑ Ø
Page 77 and 78:
ÙÖ ¿ ËÙÖ ÔÖÑØÖ× ÖÓÑ
Page 79 and 80:
LAM efforts at Estonian Meteorologi
Page 81 and 82:
grid is 186x170 points in horizonta
Page 83 and 84:
McDonald, A., and J. E. Haugen, 199
Page 85 and 86:
Operational NWP Activities at the F
Page 87 and 88:
Model Forecast model Limited area g
Page 89 and 90:
3.7 France 87
Page 91 and 92:
Fig.1. The ALADIN-France domain, wi
Page 93 and 94:
Towards AROME, A first try of a Rap
Page 95 and 96:
Status Report of the Deutscher Wett
Page 97 and 98:
In August 2006 production with the
Page 99 and 100:
3.9 Hungary 97
Page 101 and 102:
• LBC coupling at every 3 hours O
Page 103 and 104:
IFS as driving model for ALADIN. Th
Page 105 and 106:
3.10 Ireland 103
Page 107 and 108:
Filtering: Fourth order implicit ho
Page 109 and 110:
The next chart shows wind arrows at
Page 111 and 112:
Italian Meteorological Service Stat
Page 113 and 114:
Fig.3 Integration domain for LM- EU
Page 115 and 116:
3.12 Netherlands 113
Page 117 and 118:
esults with fixed entrainment and d
Page 119 and 120:
simulation. In order to allow a goo
Page 121 and 122:
layer for three contrasting nights
Page 123 and 124:
21 UTC). The severe thunderstorm fo
Page 125 and 126:
Limited Area Modelling Activities a
Page 127 and 128:
(a) Figure 2 ALADIN/Portugal geogra
Page 129 and 130:
een locally implemented as an optim
Page 131 and 132:
LAM ACTIVITIES IN ROMANIA Cornel SO
Page 133 and 134:
Fig.3 HRM domain, 78 cumulated prec
Page 135 and 136:
- Experiments : variation of the fr
Page 137 and 138:
NWP activities at Slovak Hydrometeo
Page 139 and 140:
Operational suite upgrades • 23/0
Page 141 and 142:
3.16 Slovenia 139
Page 143 and 144:
First experiments with new physical
Page 145 and 146:
• resolution of meteorological fi
Page 147 and 148:
NWP activities in INM Bartolomé Or
Page 149 and 150:
1 System definition • Creation of
Page 151 and 152:
MSLP June-August 2006 Geopotential
Page 153 and 154:
NATIONAL STATUS REPORT on Operation
Page 155 and 156:
Model input The observations used f
Page 157 and 158:
Numerical Weather Prediction at Met
Page 159 and 160:
The setup is based on a new numeric
Page 161 and 162:
weight of importance in the voting
Page 163 and 164:
4.1 F. Vana: Dynamics & Coupling, A
Page 165 and 166:
Ô¸ ×ØÐ Ò ÒÓÒ¹ÐÒÖ «Ù
Page 167 and 168:
ÙÖØÖ ÒÚ×ØØÓÒ ÔÖÓÚ Ø
Page 169 and 170:
Ì ×Ô¬ ÓÒÐÙ×ÓÒ× ÓÖ Ø
Page 171 and 172:
ÁÐÞ Ø×Ø× Ó ÄÁÆ¹ÆÀ Ý
Page 173 and 174:
¯ ÒÐÐÝ Ø Ò×ØÐØÝ Ó ØÛ
Page 175 and 176:
ÀÓÖÞÓÒØÐ Ñ× ×Þ Û× ¡
Page 177 and 178:
ÔÓØÒØÐ ÓÛ ×¸ Ù×Ø Ø
Page 179 and 180:
ÒÓÒ¹ÝÖÓ×ØØ ÝÖÓ×ØØ 1
Page 181 and 182:
5 Scientific presentations on data
Page 183 and 184:
COSMO: Overview and Strategy on Dat
Page 185 and 186:
Meteorology in Hamburg (MPI-M). The
Page 187 and 188:
temperature forecasts, this had a s
Page 189 and 190:
5.2 D. Leuenberger et al.: The Late
Page 191 and 192:
scaling factor α and of the latent
Page 193 and 194:
a) b) RAD 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 det
Page 195 and 196:
5.3 C. Fischer and A. Horanyi: Alad
Page 197 and 198:
Figure 1: analysis increments of wi
Page 199 and 200:
3) Averaged emissivities + dynamica
Page 201 and 202:
In parallel, a direct radar observa
Page 203 and 204:
►Algorithms: • FGAT (with Hunga
Page 205 and 206:
Data assimilation activities in LAC
Page 207 and 208:
Fig.3 RMSE difference (WDEF-NAM2).
Page 209 and 210:
6 Scientific presentations on physi
Page 211 and 212:
Physics improvements in the NAE mod
Page 213 and 214:
The top panel in figure 3 shows tha
Page 215 and 216:
The Murk aerosol is based on the ur
Page 217 and 218:
Relaxation term Due to these proble
Page 219 and 220:
Figure 12: SOx emissions in 1990 an
Page 221 and 222:
Buncefield oil depot fire Figure 15
Page 223 and 224:
6.2 P. Clark et al.: The Convective
Page 225 and 226:
y the model (e.g. streaks of gradua
Page 227 and 228:
the Met Office Large Eddy Model (LE
Page 229 and 230:
Figure 4 Domains used in high resol
Page 231 and 232:
1.0 95th percentile threshold Fract
Page 233 and 234:
Figure 10 Surface precipitation rat
Page 235 and 236:
HIRLAM Physics developments Sander
Page 237 and 238:
strong winds. This causes a too lar
Page 239 and 240: epresenting the weather in the case
Page 241 and 242: ËÒÓÛ¸ ÓÖ×Ø Ò Ð ×ÔØ×
Page 243 and 244: £ ½ ×Ò ¼ Þ ×Ò ×Ò · ¼
Page 245 and 246: ¿º½ ÊØÓÒ Ò Ø ÓÖ×Ø Ï
Page 247 and 248: ÙÖ Ì¾Ñ ×¸ ÐØ ÒÛ ×ÙÖ
Page 249 and 250: ×ÖÔØÓÒ Ó Ð ÑÓÐº Ìº
Page 251 and 252: ALARO-0 Physics developments at LAC
Page 253 and 254: eflectance for sample of 3-layer in
Page 255 and 256: 2.1 Pseudo prognostic turbulent kin
Page 257 and 258: TKE and the integral buoyancy of th
Page 259 and 260: 7 Scientific presentations on predi
Page 261 and 262: LAMEPS Development of ALADIN-LACE Y
Page 263 and 264: The more iterations performed, the
Page 265 and 266: uncertainty in the model physics, t
Page 267 and 268: In Budapest, dynamical downscaling
Page 269 and 270: 7.2 J. García-Moya et al.: Recent
Page 271 and 272: Currently the size of the super ens
Page 273 and 274: Palmer, T.N., Alessandri, A., Ander
Page 275 and 276: Figure 4 Example of probability map
Page 277 and 278: More than 15 mm/6 hours Figure 6 Re
Page 279 and 280: 7.3 C. Marsigli et al.: The COSMO S
Page 281 and 282: ÔÓ××Ð Ù×× Ó ÓÖ×Ø ÖÖ
Page 283 and 284: ÇËÅÇßËÊÈË × ½ßÑÑÖ
Page 285 and 286: ¾℄ ÅÖ×Ð¸ º¸ ÅÓÒØÒ¸
Page 287 and 288: Overview COSMO ensemble systems Pie
Page 289: COSMO-LEPS 16-MEMBER EPS An objecti
Page 293 and 294: 28th EWGLAM Meeting 9-11 October 20
Page 295 and 296: 9 SRNWP business meeting report 293
Page 297 and 298: Minutes of the Meeting Participatio
Page 299 and 300: Training and Education Activities i
Page 301 and 302: These reports were very divers, fro
Page 303: Contacts with the Academia In his d
show all

Proceedings - C-SRNWP Project

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?