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4. Conclusions Since the year 2001 an experimental Multi-model-Multi-boundaries Short Range Ensemble Prediction System has been developed at the Spanish INM. Currently it is preoperational. Verification results against both observations and the ECMWF analyses for the first half of 2006 have been performed in order to check ensemble calibration with synoptic variables Z500, T500, Pmsl and to estimate the ensemble response to binary events. Results look very promising: verification against ECMWF analyses shows very good results; verification against observations, although less good, performs well; the ensemble is a bit underdispersive and gives a good response to binary events. 5. Further work and future issues The ensemble performance could be improved with some post-processing, today under development. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) seems to be the right tool to make bias correction as well as calibration of the multi-model SREPS. Progress undertaken since 2001 and next scheduled activities are collected in table I. 2001-2004 Research to find the most suitable ensemble system for the Short Range Jun 04 – Jun 05 Building Multimodel System Jun 05-Dec 05 Mummub Daily run non-operational n/16 members Mar 06 Mummub Once a day 16/16 members Jun 06 Mummub Twice a day 20 members July 06 Obs verfication September 06 40 member lagged Twice a day Super-ensemble October 06 BMA Calibration January 07 Broadcast products Experimental Table I INM/SREPS progress and next scheduled activities Additional issues to be tackled with in future cover: i) Use of Aladin and WRF as additional forecasting models. ii) Consideration of methods for multiple initial conditions. They could be the used of Multi analyses from the HIRLAM 3DVAR model with a first guess from each ensemble member, or of an Ensemble transform Kalman filter. iii) Verification against observation of high resolution precipitation network over Europe. iv) Developing more post-process software (clustering). v) Apply statistical downscaling methods to SREPS outputs. vi) Convergence with GLAMEPS and regional THORPEX. vii) Data policy aspects. 6. References Hou D., Kalnay E., and Droegemeier, K.K., 2001: Objective Verification of the SAMEX’98 Ensemble Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 73-91. 270
Palmer, T.N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P. Davey, M, et al., 2004: Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). B.A.M.S., 85, 853-872. Figure 1 Integration areas used by each model Figure 2 Area common to all integrations 271
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NEWSLETTER of the 28 th EWGLAM and
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Newsletter of the 28th EWGLAM and 1
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6.2 P. Clark et al.: The Convective
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1.1 Foreword In 2006, MeteoSwiss ha
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Cornel Soci National Meteorological
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16:15 - 16:45 Filip Vana general Dy
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2 Consortia and ECMWF reports 12
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Research Progress at ECMWF 2005-200
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ocean data assimilation system for
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Physical Aspects 1) The introductio
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either with a 1-dimensional observa
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2.2 ALADIN 22
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Another important event happened, i
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• However inspection of T2m forec
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Figure 4: One case of intercomparis
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The COSMO Consortium in 2005-2006 T
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2. Model system overview The key fe
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Data Assimilation for LM Method: Nu
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2. LM performance known, critically
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expected to result in an improved r
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Schrodin, R. and H. Heise, 2002: Th
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HIRLAM-A activities in 2006 Jeanett
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addition, research on the construct
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HIRLAM Reference System development
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Fig. 2: Case study for 10 June 2006
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Unified Model Developments 2006 Met
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Figure 4: Noise in increments from
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Cycle Date Model change and impact
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1.5km On-demand model Figure 8: 1.5
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3.1 Belgium 59
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• A prognostic mass-flux scheme f
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Perspectives The integrated package
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3.2 Croatia 65
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New computer Core of the new comput
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3.3 Czech Republic 69
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LAM efforts at Estonian Meteorologi
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grid is 186x170 points in horizonta
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McDonald, A., and J. E. Haugen, 199
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Operational NWP Activities at the F
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Model Forecast model Limited area g
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3.7 France 87
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Fig.1. The ALADIN-France domain, wi
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Towards AROME, A first try of a Rap
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Status Report of the Deutscher Wett
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In August 2006 production with the
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3.9 Hungary 97
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• LBC coupling at every 3 hours O
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IFS as driving model for ALADIN. Th
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3.10 Ireland 103
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Filtering: Fourth order implicit ho
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The next chart shows wind arrows at
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Italian Meteorological Service Stat
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Fig.3 Integration domain for LM- EU
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3.12 Netherlands 113
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esults with fixed entrainment and d
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simulation. In order to allow a goo
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layer for three contrasting nights
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21 UTC). The severe thunderstorm fo
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Limited Area Modelling Activities a
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(a) Figure 2 ALADIN/Portugal geogra
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een locally implemented as an optim
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LAM ACTIVITIES IN ROMANIA Cornel SO
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Fig.3 HRM domain, 78 cumulated prec
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- Experiments : variation of the fr
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NWP activities at Slovak Hydrometeo
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Operational suite upgrades • 23/0
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3.16 Slovenia 139
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First experiments with new physical
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• resolution of meteorological fi
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NWP activities in INM Bartolomé Or
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1 System definition • Creation of
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MSLP June-August 2006 Geopotential
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NATIONAL STATUS REPORT on Operation
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Model input The observations used f
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Numerical Weather Prediction at Met
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The setup is based on a new numeric
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weight of importance in the voting
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4.1 F. Vana: Dynamics & Coupling, A
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5 Scientific presentations on data
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COSMO: Overview and Strategy on Dat
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Meteorology in Hamburg (MPI-M). The
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temperature forecasts, this had a s
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5.2 D. Leuenberger et al.: The Late
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scaling factor α and of the latent
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a) b) RAD 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 det
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5.3 C. Fischer and A. Horanyi: Alad
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Figure 1: analysis increments of wi
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3) Averaged emissivities + dynamica
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In parallel, a direct radar observa
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►Algorithms: • FGAT (with Hunga
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Data assimilation activities in LAC
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Fig.3 RMSE difference (WDEF-NAM2).
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6 Scientific presentations on physi
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Physics improvements in the NAE mod
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The top panel in figure 3 shows tha
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The Murk aerosol is based on the ur
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Relaxation term Due to these proble
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Figure 12: SOx emissions in 1990 an
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Page 261 and 262: LAMEPS Development of ALADIN-LACE Y
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Page 279 and 280: 7.3 C. Marsigli et al.: The COSMO S
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Page 287 and 288: Overview COSMO ensemble systems Pie
Page 289 and 290: COSMO-LEPS 16-MEMBER EPS An objecti
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Page 295 and 296: 9 SRNWP business meeting report 293
Page 297 and 298: Minutes of the Meeting Participatio
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