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■ ■ autoconversion in the microphysical adjustment abandon the second microphysical adjustment after turbulence ● -Semi-Lagrangian Horizontal Diffusion and associated reformulated spectral diffusion ● -CY31T1 Impact from the onset of a prognostic microphysics scheme (“APCS”) : the likelihood of precipitations Figure 2 compares 6H accumulated precipitations for ALADIN with the former Kessler scheme (right panel) and with the new Advanced Prognostic Cloud Scheme (left) on the 1 st of April 2006 at 00UTC. It can easily be seen how the jagged intense precipitation spots, to a large amount determined by orography, have been replaced by smoother larger scale structures. This is a consequence of the new water variables which have been introduced in the treatment of resolved precipitations (rain, snow, cloud liquid and ice contents). Fig. 2 compares the six hour accumulated precipitation forecast seen by the former Kessler-scheme model (left) and the APCS version (right) on April the 1 st at 00H Further developments in Data Assimilation 3D-Fgat The 3D Fgat (First Guess at Appropriate Time) scheme allowing for a low-cost taking into account of the temporal distribution of observations is currently being developed in collaboration with the Hungarian service. Ensemble Jb The current B already uses the information from an ensemble of ALADIN forecasts issued from an ARPEGE analyses ensemble. Future statistics will be produced from an ensemble of cycled ALADIN analyses. Longer term works will aim to include more flow dependency into it. Future observations A noticeable effort is being made to include among analysed observations the METEOSAT 9 imager instruments and METOP in 2007. Future developments will, in a longer term, also include AMSU-B and HIRS land observations, as well as radial winds from Doppler radars. 90
Towards AROME, A first try of a Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) The future AROME system will become operational for the meso-gamma scale in 2008. Its data assimilation part will greatly be inspired by the ALADIN data assimilation. The system will need to exploit all the numerous, high density, time distributed observations to provide a useful mesoscale analysis A possible way to achieve this is the RUC scheme, which performs successive analyses with a short time window. Figure 3 below compares Radar reflectivities with an ALADIN analysis of precipitations on a six hour window and a RUC with two three hour windows. While the conventional analysis of precipitations is not even correctly localized, it can be seen that the RUC analysis is more accurate and that its structures are closer to those seen by the reflectivities. Fig. 3 compare observed precipitation (reflectivities) in the left panel, precipitations analysed by the current 3D- Var, in the middle panel and precipitations analysed by the RUC in the right panel. 91
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NEWSLETTER of the 28 th EWGLAM and
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Newsletter of the 28th EWGLAM and 1
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6.2 P. Clark et al.: The Convective
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1.1 Foreword In 2006, MeteoSwiss ha
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Cornel Soci National Meteorological
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16:15 - 16:45 Filip Vana general Dy
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2 Consortia and ECMWF reports 12
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Research Progress at ECMWF 2005-200
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ocean data assimilation system for
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Physical Aspects 1) The introductio
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either with a 1-dimensional observa
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2.2 ALADIN 22
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Another important event happened, i
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• However inspection of T2m forec
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Figure 4: One case of intercomparis
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The COSMO Consortium in 2005-2006 T
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2. Model system overview The key fe
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Data Assimilation for LM Method: Nu
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2. LM performance known, critically
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Page 43 and 44: Schrodin, R. and H. Heise, 2002: Th
Page 45 and 46: HIRLAM-A activities in 2006 Jeanett
Page 47 and 48: addition, research on the construct
Page 49 and 50: HIRLAM Reference System development
Page 51 and 52: Fig. 2: Case study for 10 June 2006
Page 53 and 54: Unified Model Developments 2006 Met
Page 55 and 56: Figure 4: Noise in increments from
Page 57 and 58: Cycle Date Model change and impact
Page 59 and 60: 1.5km On-demand model Figure 8: 1.5
Page 61 and 62: 3.1 Belgium 59
Page 63 and 64: • A prognostic mass-flux scheme f
Page 65 and 66: Perspectives The integrated package
Page 67 and 68: 3.2 Croatia 65
Page 69 and 70: New computer Core of the new comput
Page 71 and 72: 3.3 Czech Republic 69
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Page 79 and 80: LAM efforts at Estonian Meteorologi
Page 81 and 82: grid is 186x170 points in horizonta
Page 83 and 84: McDonald, A., and J. E. Haugen, 199
Page 85 and 86: Operational NWP Activities at the F
Page 87 and 88: Model Forecast model Limited area g
Page 89 and 90: 3.7 France 87
Page 91: Fig.1. The ALADIN-France domain, wi
Page 95 and 96: Status Report of the Deutscher Wett
Page 97 and 98: In August 2006 production with the
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Page 101 and 102: • LBC coupling at every 3 hours O
Page 103 and 104: IFS as driving model for ALADIN. Th
Page 105 and 106: 3.10 Ireland 103
Page 107 and 108: Filtering: Fourth order implicit ho
Page 109 and 110: The next chart shows wind arrows at
Page 111 and 112: Italian Meteorological Service Stat
Page 113 and 114: Fig.3 Integration domain for LM- EU
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Page 117 and 118: esults with fixed entrainment and d
Page 119 and 120: simulation. In order to allow a goo
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Page 125 and 126: Limited Area Modelling Activities a
Page 127 and 128: (a) Figure 2 ALADIN/Portugal geogra
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Page 131 and 132: LAM ACTIVITIES IN ROMANIA Cornel SO
Page 133 and 134: Fig.3 HRM domain, 78 cumulated prec
Page 135 and 136: - Experiments : variation of the fr
Page 137 and 138: NWP activities at Slovak Hydrometeo
Page 139 and 140: Operational suite upgrades • 23/0
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First experiments with new physical
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• resolution of meteorological fi
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NWP activities in INM Bartolomé Or
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1 System definition • Creation of
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MSLP June-August 2006 Geopotential
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NATIONAL STATUS REPORT on Operation
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Model input The observations used f
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Numerical Weather Prediction at Met
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The setup is based on a new numeric
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weight of importance in the voting
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4.1 F. Vana: Dynamics & Coupling, A
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5 Scientific presentations on data
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COSMO: Overview and Strategy on Dat
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Meteorology in Hamburg (MPI-M). The
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temperature forecasts, this had a s
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5.2 D. Leuenberger et al.: The Late
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scaling factor α and of the latent
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a) b) RAD 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 det
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5.3 C. Fischer and A. Horanyi: Alad
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Figure 1: analysis increments of wi
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3) Averaged emissivities + dynamica
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In parallel, a direct radar observa
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►Algorithms: • FGAT (with Hunga
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Data assimilation activities in LAC
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Fig.3 RMSE difference (WDEF-NAM2).
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6 Scientific presentations on physi
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Physics improvements in the NAE mod
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The top panel in figure 3 shows tha
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The Murk aerosol is based on the ur
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Relaxation term Due to these proble
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Figure 12: SOx emissions in 1990 an
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Buncefield oil depot fire Figure 15
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6.2 P. Clark et al.: The Convective
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y the model (e.g. streaks of gradua
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the Met Office Large Eddy Model (LE
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Figure 4 Domains used in high resol
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1.0 95th percentile threshold Fract
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Figure 10 Surface precipitation rat
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HIRLAM Physics developments Sander
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strong winds. This causes a too lar
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epresenting the weather in the case
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ALARO-0 Physics developments at LAC
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eflectance for sample of 3-layer in
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2.1 Pseudo prognostic turbulent kin
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TKE and the integral buoyancy of th
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7 Scientific presentations on predi
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LAMEPS Development of ALADIN-LACE Y
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The more iterations performed, the
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uncertainty in the model physics, t
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In Budapest, dynamical downscaling
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7.2 J. García-Moya et al.: Recent
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Currently the size of the super ens
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Palmer, T.N., Alessandri, A., Ander
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Figure 4 Example of probability map
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More than 15 mm/6 hours Figure 6 Re
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7.3 C. Marsigli et al.: The COSMO S
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Overview COSMO ensemble systems Pie
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COSMO-LEPS 16-MEMBER EPS An objecti
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The used models are LAMI (Italy), a
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28th EWGLAM Meeting 9-11 October 20
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9 SRNWP business meeting report 293
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Minutes of the Meeting Participatio
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Training and Education Activities i
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These reports were very divers, fro
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Contacts with the Academia In his d
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