Afghanistan Mortality Survey 2010 - Measure DHS

Figure 6.2 Probability of Dying Age 15-59 by Residence, Zone, andWealth Quintile, from Household Deaths in the 5 YearsPrior to the SurveyRESIDENCEUrbanRuralZONENorthCentralSouth142160156160128141147161181174WEALTH QUINTILEPoorestSecond163162162160MiddleFourth153158158170Richest1381530 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200FemaleMaleAMS 20106.2 INDIRECT ADULT MORTALITY ESTIMATES (ORPHANHOOD METHOD)This section presents indirect adult mortality estimates from the orphanhood approach, also calledthe parental survivorship approach. This is an indirect method that was conceived and first put intopractice in the 1960s and 1970s (Henri, 1960; Brass and Hill, 1973). Since then, further work has beendone on developing techniques for converting observed data on parental survival into standard life tableprobabilities of survival and adult mortality (e.g., Hill and Trussell, 1977; Blacker, 1977; Timaeus, 1992).During data collection, the method involved recording information in the household roster from twosimple questions on whether the household member’s biological mother and father was alive: “Is your(biological) mother still alive?” and “Is your (biological) father still alive?” The proportion of mothers(or fathers) surviving among respondents of a given age then represents an average of survivalprobabilities from the mother’s age at the birth (or father’s age at the conception) to the age of therespondents.1The orphanhood approach produces long-term adult mortality estimates that extend back 20 yearsor longer, and helps to fill gaps in data during this period. The method is not reliable for short-termchanges in mortality, so estimates are best used in tandem with direct methods that measure recent1 The orphanhood method of estimating adult mortality has several caveats. Reports are from surviving children: ifchildren’s survival and parents’ survival are linked, there will be a bias in the mortality estimate. Similarly, there canbe multiple reports of the same parent if there are multiple surviving siblings. The indirect method requiresknowledge of fertility patterns in the past, in particular the mean age at birth for each sex of parent. If there has beena change in fertility, the estimates will be biased. The estimates produced are ambiguous as to time since each agegroup gives a separate section of the survival curve for separate central ages. Mortality levels that have changed overtime, and especially if the change is not linear, result in biased estimates of mortality in recent periods. Errors in agereporting that distort the five-year age distributions of household members also distort the resulting survival curvesand estimates of mortality. As with other indirect methods, the level of mortality is made with reference to a modellife table. To the extent that the age pattern of mortality in the country does not follow that of the selected life table,the estimates of mortality may err.Adult Mortality | 111