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Afghanistan Mortality Survey 2010 - Measure DHS

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stagnated. The NRVA 2007/8 showed that 15 percent of currently married women (including Kuchiwomen) were using a modern method of family planning (ICON-INSTITUTE, 2009) compared with 20percent in the AMS <strong>2010</strong>. Use of a modern method in urban areas (28 percent) is more than twice as highas in rural areas (13 percent) in the NRVA 2007/8 with similar proportions seen in the AMS <strong>2010</strong> (31percent of urban women and 17 percent of rural women). The MICS 2003 did not provide information bytype of method.Figure 3.5 Trends in Modern Contraceptive Use in <strong>Afghanistan</strong>3530Percent2831252015102110101613151720550MICS 2003 NRVA 2005 AHS 2006 NRVA 2007/8 AMS <strong>2010</strong>Urban Rural TotalNote: MICS 2003 urban and total refers to all methods.AMS <strong>2010</strong>3.5 CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE TFR AND PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITYThe level of fertility is principally determined by three proximate determinants, age at firstmarriage, contraceptive use, and postpartum infecundability (which is mostly influenced by the durationand intensity of breastfeeding). 6 Bongaarts proposed a model where the total fertility rate of a populationcan be calculated from four indices of proximate determinants and the total fecundity (TF): the index ofmarriage (Cm), the index of contraception (Cc), the index of induced abortion (Ca) and the index ofpostpartum infecundability (Ci) (Bongaarts, 1978). These indices range from 0 to 1. The higher eachindex, the higher the TFR will be. The proximate determinants of fertility model can be applied to theAMS <strong>2010</strong> data to indicate whether the TFR in <strong>Afghanistan</strong> is consistent with the measures of theproximate determinants. The TFR predicted by the model for <strong>Afghanistan</strong> is only slightly higher than themeasured TFR, indicating compatibility between the level of fertility and the level of proximatedeterminants, and internal consistency in the data collected from the AMS <strong>2010</strong> (Table 3.17). 7 The TFRand implied fertility are exactly the same (5.0) in <strong>Afghanistan</strong> excluding the South zone.6 Because the AMS <strong>2010</strong> did not collect information on breastfeeding status, the index of postpartum infecundabilitywas calculated by assuming that children were breastfeeding if the time since birth of the child was less than 7months and the child was currently living with the mother at the time of the survey.7 There is a fourth proximate determinant in the Bongaarts model, induced abortion, which is not included here(assumed to be 1.0). However, even in countries with very high levels of induced abortion, such as those of theformer Soviet Union, the effect on fertility is quite small, due to the relatively short time that an abortion protects awoman from becoming pregnant again.Fertility, Marriage, and Family Planning | 59

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