PIK Biennial Report 2000-2001 - Potsdam Institute for Climate ...

Global Change & Social Systems
Head: Carlo C. Jaeger
Deputy Head: Ottmar Edenhofer
Overview
To act responsibly in view of global environmental
change will require a socio-economic shift of historic
proportions, a sustainability transition. The Department
of Global Change and Social Systems investigates the
possibilities for and obstacles to such a transition. Sustainable
development will involve a whole array of specific
transitions. We have formed three research platforms
to investigate some of these in depth.
Technology and the Energy Transition
Group leader: Ottmar Edenhofer
The pros and cons of various approaches to climate policy
hinge to a very large extent on the prospects for
restructuring the global energy system after the age of
cheap oil. Sustainability science requires analysing the
interaction between technological change and economic
growth. Using new modelling techniques, we identify
bifurcation points that offer viable policy options.
Social Discourse and the Lifestyle Transition
Group leader: Fritz Reusswig
How many billion cars will be running on planet Earth a
few decades from now? What kinds of cars will there be?
Such questions show how intimately issues of sustainability
are connected to shifts in lifestyles. We combine
stakeholder dialogues and lifestyle research to investigate
linkages between sustainability and preference changes.
Resilience and the Management Transition
Group leader: Richard Klein
Identifying and alleviating vulnerabilities to various
aspects of global change is a key task for a sustainability
transition. Protection against specific risks must be
embedded in efforts to increase overall resilience and
innovative capacity. We study such management patterns
by drawing on comparative regional studies and modelling
efforts.
The three platforms support flexible task forces working
on specific research questions. To connect our research
to international research communities we use two interfaces:
the European Climate Forum and the concept of a
Geoscope (cf the GEOSCOPE project, page 44). The
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Carlo C. Jaeger
former provides a network involving research institutes
as well as stakeholders. The latter provides a vision of a
sustainability transition unfolding through a strategy of
learning by doing, gradually developing the worldwide
monitoring capability required for this task.
Exemplary Research Tasks
The task force "Endogenous Growth" studies the effect
of different investment policies on energy efficiency. A
Model of Investment and Technological Development
has been developed for this purpose. It turns out that a
climate-friendly policy may be economically much more
attractive than is often assumed.
The task force "Diffusion of Innovations" develops a
simulation tool for the consumption side of the economy.
We use it to study diffusion processes of innovative
environmentally relevant products.
No comprehensive list of research tasks shall be
attempted here, as they are meant to form a rich and
fast-changing pattern of activities. For further information
on research performed with the help of the Social
Systems Department, see the PIK projects on prospects
for European climate policy (EUROPA), on risks of
changing ocean circulation (INTEGRATION), regional
sustainability issues (BEST, AIM), water resources
(GLOREM), political institutions for a sustainability
transition (GLOBAL GOVERNANCE), and last not
least on vulnerability (EVA).
Out of these tasks, we develop software modules that
can be coupled for purposes of integrated assessments
(cf PIAM). Each assessment, then, can be based on
developing and combining relevant software modules
according to frameworks defined within an ongoing
stakeholder dialogue.