PIK Biennial Report 2000-2001 - Potsdam Institute for Climate ...

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Model Structure and Design The design of CLIMBER-3 is based on the experience gained in the development and application of CLIMBER-2, as well as the experience of several contributing teams in different fields of the Earth sciences. Although the new model will employ more sophisticated components than CLIMBER-2, it still belongs to the class of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs). CLIMBER-3 is designed as a scientifically based, internally consistent, and flexible model. The essential features required of the model design are: 34 • Explicit description of the most important processes and feedbacks. • Conservation of energy and other substances in the Earth system. • Direct coupling of the modules without using flux correction and explicit empirical information. This project is funded partly by DFG, the EU and the McDonnell Foundation.
TOPIK 2 - Management of Singular Events This TOPIK is concerned with extreme events, such as severe storms, floods or droughts, and with abrupt changes in the Earth system, such as the break-up of a large ice sheet. Meteorite impacts or major volcanic eruptions are further examples of singular events. They are characterized by a major impact or change occurring over a relatively short time, in contrast to insidious GRAIN Guardrails and Indicators for Climate Protection Project speaker: Elmar Kriegler PIK project members: Nico Bauer, Ottmar Edenhofer, Hermann Held, Thomas Kleinen, Elmar Kriegler, Gerhard Petschel-Held. External project collaborators: Thomas Bruckner, (Technical University Berlin). Motivation The GRAIN project addresses the issue of robust climate protection strategies under uncertainty and nonlinearity. How can we account for the large uncertainty about the complex human-environment system? How can we detect possible indicators of nonlinear thresholds? Which structural changes of the socio-economic system are needed to address climate change? Decision under Uncertainty and Imprecision The objective uncertainty about climate change can in many cases not be quantified by precise probabilities. Hence we are investigating theories which allow us to capture not only uncertainty, but also imprecision. We are particularly interested in the implications for decision-making; with imprecise information the decisionmaker can adopt a range of equally rational attitudes ranging from a pessimist to an optimist perspective. Preliminary results show that the decision-making model behaves rather pessimistically, if there exists an intolerable domain of future developments which has to be strictly avoided. Indicators of Critical Thresholds Nonlinear effects, such as bifurcations and thresholds, can be very important for the behaviour of the climate system. As a prominent example we consider the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The THC trends. Singular events can have a particularly damaging effect on natural and socio-economic systems. This TOPIK aims at characterizing singular events with respect to their mechanisms and potential consequences, at defining and assessing associated risks, and at developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Fig. 1: The "typical" red spectrum becomes much “redder” close to the bifurcation and may even change to an algebraic relationship. breaks down if the freshwater input into the North Atlantic basin reaches a critical value. This behaviour has been observed both in conceptual models and GCMs. We are investigating the simplest model of the THC, the 2-box Stommel model. The model undergoes a bifurcation at a critical freshwater flux � c. We have added a stochastic freshwater flux with mean value �. Figure 1 shows that the power spectral density of the circulation strength changes markedly when the system approaches the bifurcation. We are investigating whether this method can be applied to other systems and be used as an indicator for critical thresholds. Technology and Investment The energy system today is based on fossil fuels. To limit emissions we have three strategic options: 1) Efficiency: increasing the energy efficiency, 2) Substitution: conversion to renewable energy, 3) Sufficiency: stabilizing consumption. 35
Page 2 and 3: Impressum Publisher Potsdam Institu
Page 4 and 5: The New High-Performance Computer 9
Page 7 and 8: The First 10 Years By Udo E. Simoni
Page 9 and 10: Understanding the Earth system is a
Page 11: The Institute and its Mission
Page 14 and 15: major contributions from the Europe
Page 17 and 18: Five Scientific Departments to Adva
Page 19 and 20: Global Change & Natural Systems Hea
Page 21 and 22: Integrated Systems Analysis Co-Head
Page 23: Research
Page 26 and 27: Table 1: Internal Contest of Ideas
Page 28 and 29: Catalogue of TOOLs INTEGRATED SYSTE
Page 30 and 31: Holocene (the past ~10,000 years).
Page 32 and 33: Research Questions • How do we de
Page 36 and 37: We have built a module of investmen
Page 38 and 39: The implementation of this inter-di
Page 40 and 41: TOPIK 3 - Socio-economic Causes of
Page 42 and 43: TOPIK 4 - Emergence of a Global Sub
Page 44 and 45: Subproject MANUS - “Managers of G
Page 46 and 47: TOPIK 5 - Regional Simulators Diffe
Page 48 and 49: Land-use Change in Developing Count
Page 50 and 51: TOPIK 6 - Sectoral Climate Sensitiv
Page 52 and 53: esulting in unbalanced sugar/acid r
Page 54 and 55: TOPIK 7 - PIKuliar Culture PIK oper
Page 56 and 57: Fig. 4: Focus graph for the exam- H
Page 58 and 59: investigate the effect of uncertain
Page 60 and 61: Completed Projects QUESTIONS Qualit
Page 62 and 63: POEM Potsdam Earth System Modelling
Page 64 and 65: RAGTIME Regional Assessment of Glob
Page 66 and 67: EUROPA European Network Activities
Page 68 and 69: CHIEF Global Change Impacts on Euro
Page 71: Sustainability Science
Page 74 and 75: "coevolution science". This also pr
Page 76 and 77: state government, whose promises co
Page 78 and 79: ence will not hesitate to stage the
Page 81 and 82: The First Sustainability Days and t
Page 83 and 84: Scientific Symposia on the First Su
Page 85 and 86:
Palaeoperspectives on Global Sustai
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The New Main Building
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From the Royal Astrophysical Observ
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92 tinctly set apart from the highe
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A project to expand the building wa
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Rediscovering hidden beauty. Ceilin
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The Big 42-Check - an Interview Q:
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Scientific Relations
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A Network for Our Future Understand
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issues, and integration of discipli
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place in October 2001 and was part
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Public Relations
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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impac
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Appendix
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Organization Chart
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Board of Trustees Chair: State/Fede
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eclipse of August 11, 1999. Meteoro
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per unit leaf area in Solanum melon
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In: Public participation and integr
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Hoff, H. (2000): Deep rooted or: Ho
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Schaaf, C.; Strahler, A.; Gao, F.;
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and future climate changes: North-s
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131 Lectures at PIK (continued) Dat
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Symposia Name of Event Place and Da
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135 External Funding Project Name A
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137 Project Name Acronym Reference
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139 Project Name Acronym Reference
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Co-operations Australia Institution
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Germany Institution/Location Type o
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Institution/Location Type of co-ope
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Universität Marburg, FB Wirtschaft
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Switzerland Institution/Location Ty
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Schröder, Birgit Schröter, Dr. Da
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Notes 159
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Publications 2000 Publications, pee
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Republic, IHP-V, Technical Document
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