PIK Biennial Report 2000-2001 - Potsdam Institute for Climate ...

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Catalogue of TOOLs INTEGRATED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS - Dynamical Systems Analysis - Concepts of Integrated Modelling - Soft and Set-based Modelling - Assessing Uncertainty Implications - Decision-Making Analysis CLIMATE SYSTEM - Meteorological Data Base - Statistical Models - Scenario Models - Dynamical Regional Climate Models - Ocean Models - Climate System Models GLOBAL CHANGE & NATURAL SYSTEMS - Ecophysiological Simulation Models 28 - Hydrological Simulation Models - Forest Dynamics Models - Ecosystem Dynamics Model - Data Retrieval Techniques GLOBAL CHANGE & SOCIAL SYSTEMS - Model of Endogenous Growth - Multi-Sector Models - Multi-Level Models - Conceptual Analysis & Stakeholder Dialogue DATA & COMPUTATION - MODelling ENVironment (MODENV) - Graphic Simulation Builder - Parallelization Tools - VISual ANAlysis (VISANA) - Model Improvement Support - Metadata Model and Interfaces
TOPIK 1 - Nonlinear Dynamics of the Ecosphere The ecosphere is a complex dynamic system which encompasses the abiotic geosphere (mainly atmosphere, oceans, ice masses, the Earth interior) and the living world as composed of the terrestrial and marine biosphere; humankind is considered here as an external driver. This TOPIK explores the nonlinear behaviour of the ecosphere as well as its resilience to large-scale natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Examples of the QUEST Quaternary Earth System Stability Project speaker: Martin Claussen PIK project members: Eva Bauer, Victor Brovkin, Reinhard Calov, Siegfried Franck, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexa Griesel, Matthias Hofmann, Anja Hünerbein, Claudia Kubatzki, Till Kuhlbrodt, Miguel Maqueda, Marisa Montoya, Vladimir Petoukhov, Stefan Rahmstorf, Yuri Szirezhev. External project collaborators: Danish Centre for Earth System Science (Denmark), Dept. of Quaternary Geol./ Palaeoecology, Vrije Univ. Amsterdam (The Netherlands), Inst. d’Astronomie et de Géophy. Georges Lemaître: Univ. Catholique Louvain (Belgium), Inst. u. Museum f. Geol. u. Palöoontologie, Univ. Tübingen (Germany), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et d’ Environnement (France), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (The Netherlands), KIHZ (Klima in histor. Zeiten) project partner (Germany). Research Questions Human interventions play a significant role in the Earth system. We are altering the character of the Earth at an increasing rate, and the present dynamic stability of the Earth system itself may be endangered. Therefore the QUEST project is designed to improve our understanding of the dynamics of the natural Earth system in its present geological epoch, the late Quaternary (the last several hundred thousand years). QUEST addresses the following questions: (a) Can we identify the processes and feedbacks that have kept the natural Earth system within stable bounds during the last 400,000 years? (b) Can we explain the abrupt climate changes found in records of the last glacial? latter are the continuing release of fossil fuel combustion products into the atmosphere, sub-continental changes in land cover, and variations in solar luminosity. Investigations include exploration of so-called switches and choke points in the ecosphere, i.e. regions in which slight external forcings/disturbances can trigger massive changes of climate and other vital Earth system elements. (c) How resilient is the natural Earth system in its present state to large-scale natural and anthropogenic perturbations? excited state (interstadial) basic state (stadial) Fig. 1: Schematic of the two glacial climate states described in Ganopolski and Rahmstorf (Nature, 2001). Bottom: the stable “cold” or “stadial” mode. Top: the unstable “warm” or “interstadial” mode. Contours show the surface air temperature difference relative to the stable state. Ocean circulation is shown schematically, surface currents in red and deep currents in light blue. Continental ice sheets are based on the reconstruction of Peltier, prescribed in the simulations. First Results DANSGAARD OESCHGER CYCLES Abrupt changes in climate, termed Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) and Heinrich (H) events, have punctuated the last glacial period (~100,000 - 10,000 years ago) but not the 29
Page 2 and 3: Impressum Publisher Potsdam Institu
Page 4 and 5: The New High-Performance Computer 9
Page 7 and 8: The First 10 Years By Udo E. Simoni
Page 9 and 10: Understanding the Earth system is a
Page 11: The Institute and its Mission
Page 14 and 15: major contributions from the Europe
Page 17 and 18: Five Scientific Departments to Adva
Page 19 and 20: Global Change & Natural Systems Hea
Page 21 and 22: Integrated Systems Analysis Co-Head
Page 23: Research
Page 26 and 27: Table 1: Internal Contest of Ideas
Page 30 and 31: Holocene (the past ~10,000 years).
Page 32 and 33: Research Questions • How do we de
Page 34 and 35: Model Structure and Design The desi
Page 36 and 37: We have built a module of investmen
Page 38 and 39: The implementation of this inter-di
Page 40 and 41: TOPIK 3 - Socio-economic Causes of
Page 42 and 43: TOPIK 4 - Emergence of a Global Sub
Page 44 and 45: Subproject MANUS - “Managers of G
Page 46 and 47: TOPIK 5 - Regional Simulators Diffe
Page 48 and 49: Land-use Change in Developing Count
Page 50 and 51: TOPIK 6 - Sectoral Climate Sensitiv
Page 52 and 53: esulting in unbalanced sugar/acid r
Page 54 and 55: TOPIK 7 - PIKuliar Culture PIK oper
Page 56 and 57: Fig. 4: Focus graph for the exam- H
Page 58 and 59: investigate the effect of uncertain
Page 60 and 61: Completed Projects QUESTIONS Qualit
Page 62 and 63: POEM Potsdam Earth System Modelling
Page 64 and 65: RAGTIME Regional Assessment of Glob
Page 66 and 67: EUROPA European Network Activities
Page 68 and 69: CHIEF Global Change Impacts on Euro
Page 71: Sustainability Science
Page 74 and 75: "coevolution science". This also pr
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ence will not hesitate to stage the
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The First Sustainability Days and t
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Scientific Symposia on the First Su
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Palaeoperspectives on Global Sustai
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The New Main Building
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From the Royal Astrophysical Observ
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92 tinctly set apart from the highe
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A project to expand the building wa
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Rediscovering hidden beauty. Ceilin
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The Big 42-Check - an Interview Q:
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Scientific Relations
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A Network for Our Future Understand
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issues, and integration of discipli
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place in October 2001 and was part
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Public Relations
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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impac
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Appendix
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Organization Chart
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Board of Trustees Chair: State/Fede
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eclipse of August 11, 1999. Meteoro
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per unit leaf area in Solanum melon
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In: Public participation and integr
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Hoff, H. (2000): Deep rooted or: Ho
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Schaaf, C.; Strahler, A.; Gao, F.;
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and future climate changes: North-s
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131 Lectures at PIK (continued) Dat
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Symposia Name of Event Place and Da
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135 External Funding Project Name A
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137 Project Name Acronym Reference
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139 Project Name Acronym Reference
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Co-operations Australia Institution
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Germany Institution/Location Type o
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Institution/Location Type of co-ope
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Universität Marburg, FB Wirtschaft
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Switzerland Institution/Location Ty
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Schröder, Birgit Schröter, Dr. Da
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Notes 159
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Publications 2000 Publications, pee
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Republic, IHP-V, Technical Document
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