PIK Biennial Report 2000-2001 - Potsdam Institute for Climate ...

nal is masked by multidecadal climate fluctuations. Consistent
cooling trends of April temperatures in Germany
between 1951 and 1984 and a warming from 1984 to
1999 led to both a delay and an advancement of bud
burst for trees with bud burst in late spring (Figure 2).
Early flushing trees showed an increasingly advanced
CLAWINE
Climate Adaptability of European Wine Production
Project speaker: Manfred Stock
PIK project members: Wilfried Ahrens, Franz Badeck,
Antonella Battaglini, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe,
Peggy Gräfe, Thomas Kartschall, Gerhard Petschel-
Held.
External collaborators: DWD-Geisenheim, Schloß
Johannisberg (partners 2-25 cf Figure 3).
Fig. 3: Location of project partners, with 12 scientific and 14 producing
partners.
Objectives
The overall objective of CLAWINE is to the evaluate
the role and potential of European wine production in
the context of climate change. Wine plays a key role for
the economy of several regions. Grapevine is grown
under conditions often termed marginal for agriculture,
thus it is vulnerable to climate change. CLAWINE will
develop and evaluate necessary adaptation measures by:
• correlating grape yield/quality and environment,
• downscaling climate scenarios for selected regions,
• assessing risks,
• estimating necessary adaptation costs.
The main goal is a grapevine decision support system.
The work will be done within five work packages
(Figure 4). It is planned to disseminate the results to policy-makers,
advisors, organizations and wine producers
through involvement in the project and knowledge
transfer.
budburst leading to a possible competitional advantage
over late flushing spring trees. Models of bud burst were
developed to incorporate this important aspect into simulations
of ecosystem dynamics and carbon balance.
This project has been partly funded by BMBF and the EU.
Fig. 4: Information flow chart from climate change to phenological
and socio-economic impacts and management decisions.
Results in 2000 and 2001
1) A climate scenario (period 2001-2050) for the Rheingau
region based on weather records from 1951-2000
was generated and distributed to the partners.
2) Using this scenario, impact studies on phenological
development for Riesling have been conducted. They
indicated an acceleration of phenology by 10-14 days.
This tendency is also visible in harvest data from
1950-2000 (Figure 5). Such a shift is capable of endangering
the typical character of the Rheingau Riesling,
because of:
- early maturity, shifting vintage to mid September;
and ripening under higher night-time temperatures,
Fig. 5: Effect of climate change on start of harvest in the Rheingau.
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